Leinster are now outright favourites by a margin – that can’t be right, surely?
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 9 January. The European Champions Cup returns for the final two week block of group matches to decide who goes through to the round of 16. Toulouse were shocked at Glasgow putting Leinster firmly in the driving seat. Considering they are not even top of the URC, is that really accurate?
European Champions Cup Preview
After a chaotic opening set of fixtures before Christmas, Leinster have emerged as the clear frontrunners with a 33% chance of winning the competition, according to our model. Toulouse, who were previously favourites, have slipped to 23% after their surprise loss to Glasgow, meaning the two European giants are now on course to meet as early as the Round of 16 — a huge early clash that could decide the tournament. This, more than anything, accounts for Leinster’s high win prediction.
Between them, they still account for over half (56%) of all simulated wins, but there’s a serious shift underway. Leinster are picking up form in the URC after a slow start and are also 2 from 2 in the Champions Cup, having defeated Leicester and Harlequins. That form holds out well as Leicester recently beat Bath in the Prem.
The model tends to give significant weight to historical European performances, which helps explain Leinster’s high percentage chances of victory. But is that the correct approach? Much like Ireland (who we’ll discuss later in our Six Nations previews), there’s a growing sense that they may be on a slight downward trajectory. This could explain the relatively generous price currently being offered by the bookies. Does the eye test tell a different story? Well, that is a subjective opinion, somewhat, and one which can lead people astray. Historically, the model has proven to be very, very successful, so it simply remains to be seen whether Leinster will deliver.
Behind them, Bordeaux sit third in the projections at 11%, with Northampton, La Rochelle, Toulon, and Saracens all still in contention but well behind the front-runners. Teams like Glasgow have been the big risers, winning both matches so far, while Bath and Munster face a tougher climb after mixed results.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
This weekend kicks off Round 3, and it’s a critical one. Leinster are strong favourites to beat La Rochelle at home (87% chance of victory), while Toulouse will look to bounce back in a tricky away tie at Saracens, which could go either way. Bordeaux should have too much for Northampton, while Toulon are slight favourites over Munster in another key matchup. Elsewhere, Edinburgh should edge Gloucester, and Bath travel to Castres for what looks like a genuinely even contest — a potential upset on the cards. Bulls v Bristol is another standout, with both sides evenly matched and the visitors looking like good value at long odds.
Champions Cup Outright Market
As discussed, Leinster look the best value at 4.5 (with a value threshold of 4.0), while Toulouse are overvalued given their recent form. That gap, between 33% and 24% is quite considerable, and is very good value. However, even as favourites, there is only a one in 3 chance that they will emerge victorious.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip This Weekend
In individual fixtures, there’s plenty of good value. Castres at 3.75 at home to Bath, and Bristol at 7.5 away to the Bulls are some of our standout picks. Whilst Bath and Bulls remain favourites to win, the odds of victory have been miscalculated, and the offered rewards outweigh the risk profile.
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