After a long, dark, cold January, things are finally starting to look up. The days are (marginally) getting longer, the temperature is (allegedly) going up—but most importantly, the Six Nations is nearly here. Rugby’s Greatest Championship – shameless bait for the Southern Hemisphere friends – is back again.
Who’s going to take the crown this year? Can Ireland pull off a historic 3-peat? Are France back to the powerhouse everyone fears? Will England’s defense finally gel? IS IT SCOTLAND’S YEAR? And what about Wales or Italy?
Well, read on, dear reader. All these answers – and more – are below. Let’s get into it.
Sports4Cast Predictions
At Sports4Cast, our prediction models are designed to take (at least some of!) the guesswork out of the game. Covering both international and club rugby (and football if that’s also your thing), we use a proprietary rankings system and a host of additional factors to simulate match outcomes and tournament scenarios.
The result? Unbiased predictions that cut through the noise, offering a fresh perspective on each team’s chances. It’s an excellent starting point for serious rugby fans trying to gauge form and chances and let’s be honest, an irresistible trigger for online trolls. You know who you are.
We also use these predictions to calculate a fair price or odds for each match or tournament outcome. This is what the bookmakers should be offering as a fair return for your stake – we call it the ‘Value Threshold’ – but as we well know, this is not always the case. Therefore we highlight any matches over these thresholds to draw your attention to the matches where these mispricings, or opportunities, exist.
You can check out the predictions and the betting analysis below.
Ireland for the 3-peat?
Let’s get straight into it. Our model has Ireland as favourites for the Six Nations crown. This would be their third title in a row, which would be a historic achievement that nobody has managed before.
Both France, England, Wales and Ireland have gone two in a row, with both England and France achieving three wins in four, but nobody has ever managed to win three consecutive Six Nations titles.
Our model gives Ireland around a 45% chance of achieving this feat, and about a 25% chance of the Grand Slam.
Therefore, as the eagle eyed among you may have already spotted, although Ireland are our favourites for the win it is more likely than not that someone else will take the title.
Are the French back?
Of these challengers, the French are thought to have the most chance with around a 25% chance of winning the title, but with less than a 5% chance of winning the Grand Slam.
Why are the French less favoured? Didn’t they look better in the Autumn? Well, arguably yes. They beat New Zealand while the Irish lost, and comfortably put away Argentina when the Irish struggled to do so.
However, home advantage is strong, especially in International Six Nations rugby. And whilst both Ireland and France have three away fixtures, the Irish have their key ones – England and France – at home. France on the other hand play both England and, crucially, Ireland away from home. This is the main reason why the Algorithm is favouring Ireland over France for the tournament.
What do the bookies say?
The bookies have – very marginally – Ireland for the title. An average of the current bookmakers odds gives them an implied percentage chance of 37%, with the French marginally behind on 34%. The current best odds for both are just over 3 on the Betfair Exchange.
What this means is that, based on the current odds and the Sports4Cast Algorithm, Ireland are a good, value bet for the tournament. We calculate that you should be looking for odds over 2.5 on Ireland – the ‘Value Threshold’ shown above – and therefore, even with the Betfair Exchange commission, the odds available on them are worth a look. They are highlighted green above.
Betting on the Irish to win the Six Nations … ? Surely never that bad an idea at the moment!
(What can also be seen in the above is the Bookies ‘Overround’. This is defined as the practice of factoring in the profit margin which is implemented by bookmakers, and is best displayed as a percentage. Above you can see the total of the bookies odds adds to 110% when it should add to 100%. This 10% extra is the bookies overround.)
Grand Slam?
The Algorithm has Ireland as most likely for the Grand Slam at 25%, but it thinks it more likely than not that no one will do a clean sweep of matches. Historically, there have been 13 Grand Slams in 25 years of Six Nations so you might fairly say that there is around a 50% chance. However, the Algo thinks it (marginally) less likely this year, perhaps as a result of the increased competitive nature of the tournament.
Again, this looks like an opportunity. Perhaps it is similar to punters forgetting about the draw in football – when asked in the Six Nations who’s going to win the Grand Slam, people forget that ‘Nobody’ is actually a good answer.
And with odds of 1.91 available at William Hill for a bet that the Algo thinks has nearly a 2 in 3 chance of coming off – well, that seems fairly reasonable.
But what about England?
Well, they have a reasonable chance! 20% or 1 in 5 according to the Algorithm which is perhaps more than people might expect given all the doom and gloom surrounding the team of late? But then as can be seen above those chances are around the same as the bookies implied chance at 23% so perhaps people are expecting it!
England have three fixtures at home and two away. Their schedule starts off about as hard as it gets in rugby these days – away in Dublin. After that the French come visiting, but the Algo actually favours England in that – although it is extremely tight – and from then on it gets easier. Although Scotland seem to have had England’s number in recent years, surely the English have to win this year … ? 5 in a row for Scotland – and 4 in row at Twickenham without a win for England – seems too much.
All in all, you’d expect England to finish on three wins, and have a good chance at the fourth. Although this might not be enough to see them lift the title, it should see them finish high in the table.
If you’re looking to bet on England then right now you should be looking for odds over 5.5 to get value for your money, but the best we’ve been able to find is 4.5 at Betfair. And the Grand Slam? It should be priced at least 21, but again the best we’ve found is 10 at Bet365. All in all it’s what you might expect for England in big sporting tournaments, but keep an eye on it throughout the tournament as things often change with results.
Don’t say it … but is it Scotland’s year?
Could it finally be the year? I’m afraid it seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened! They have a decent chance of winning each match – at least individually – but it seems unlikely that they will string 4 of them together which is likely the minimum requirement to win the title. And the Grand Slam? Just 1.31%.
They probably should win three matches. They have two relative ‘bankers’ home against Wales and Italy, and then a reasonable shot against all of Ireland, England and France. A good return for Scotland would be winning one of those extra games, with a stretch result winning two.
Scotland have been flicking over and under the value threshold over the last few weeks, so they are definitely one to keep an eye on. You should be looking for odds over 9.8, which we have found from time to time, but the best right now seems to be 8 at BetVictor.
Wales and Italy?
As for who might prop up the bottom of the table, it looks like a shootout between Wales and Italy right now. Wales have had well documented woes of late, and are without a single win in over a year. And this Six Nations may not yet yield it. Their best chance is against Italy, but sadly for Wales, it is in Rome. This may prove a stretch too far for them right now, but either way it should be a good match to watch.
If you’re looking for value at the bottom of the table it’s not to be found on the two ‘favourites’, who the bookies have priced fairly poorly. However, if you like a long shot, then France have enormous odds at 126 at William Hill!
It’s very unlikely to happen – just a 1.87% chance according to the Algo – but at odds of 126 it is technically worth it! I wouldn’t recommend a large stake however …
Opening Weekend
Opening weekend looks like a fairly one sided affair across the board, and although we’ve been wrong before (unbelievable I know) it seems unlikely that we’ll see anything but three home wins.
Ireland at home look like the best bet for the weekend, although they are right on the threshold so it’s really down to personal preference. Again, if you fancy a long shot, then Wales and Italy are technically worth a punt at odds of 31 and 17 respectively, but I wouldn’t be betting much on those ones.
Weekend 2 looks like a much more evenly matched affair and far more exciting, with three tantalisingly poised matches. However, as of yet there are no odds available for these matches, so we’ll have to wait and see!
Check back throughout the tournament for all the latest info, to see how teams chances change as results come in, and to see the best opportunities and prices available at the bookies. Good luck!
