Welcome to the Six Nations 2026 Final Review. Last weekend saw France take the title as they managed to overcome a much improved England side in a brilliant match which required Ramos to kick a last-minute penalty to seal the title. It was a fitting finale for an excellent competition that saw many memorable matches. Earlier, Ireland had ended Scotland’s chances of a first title by crushing them in Dublin. Italy also fell at the final hurdle, looking to complete their best showing in the tournament, they went down 31-17 to Wales.
The Final Standings
France and Ireland both finished with 4 wins and 1 defeat, France taking the title on bonus points. Scotland finished an impressive third. What could have been if they hadn’t dropped the ball against Italy in the opening match. Italy finished 4th, above England, and finished with two excellent victories and the second best points against tally, which must be a first. England’s tournament was a shocker. Defeat to France capped off a tournament with only a solitary win against Wales to show for it. Wales finished with the wooden spoon as expected, but they gave a good account of themselves and showed lots of green shoots of improvement, finishing it off with a fine win against Italy.
How Did It Compare to the Pre-Tournament Predictions?
Chances Prior to Tournament
Upon looking back at our Pre-Tournament Preview, it makes for interesting reading. The title said it all: “Is the Best Ever Six Nations About To Kick Off?” In that regard, we were fairly spot on — thrilling and competitive matches across the board, not decided until the last kick of the last game.
We identified a three-horse race between France, Ireland and England, and highlighted Scotland as the kingmakers. We thought the title would be beyond them, but that they would have a big say in deciding who won it. That is exactly what happened.
On the title race itself, we were very close. We predicted that the matches between the top three would be tight, with each team likely to win one and lose one. That left the Scotland fixture as the pivotal match for all three, with France and England having to travel to Murrayfield while Ireland had the advantage of playing them at home. We called Ireland to win the tournament on that basis. They nearly did, matching France on wins but falling just short on bonus points.
We were also spot on in calling that there would be no Grand Slam winner — the matches between the top three were simply too close to call.
Where we were wide of the mark was England. We had them as genuine contenders, coming off a ten-match unbeaten run and having closed the gap to the top teams considerably. Their collapse was the big surprise of the tournament.
Scotland beating both England and France at Murrayfield was impressive, but their loss to Ireland was predicted, and their opening defeat to Italy ultimately cost them any chance of a first title.
Pre-Tournament Grand Slam Odds – We identified that No Winner was massively underpriced
Value Identified During the Tournament
One area where we can reflect with some satisfaction is our value picks across the tournament. We identified five matches where the market had got the price wrong — and four of them paid out.
From the very first match, we were looking for value rather than simply backing the favourite. France v Ireland opened the tournament and whilst the bookies had France at 86% probability, we identified Ireland as the value bet at 3.24. France won, so that one didn’t come off, as Ireland didn’t show up and got pasted.
From there, four from four. We identified Scotland as value against England at 4.00, a call that looked bold given England arrived on the back of eleven straight wins. Our best pick was identifying Ireland as value against England at 5.00, and again the market was badly wrong.
We spotted value on Scotland against France at 4.50 — another Murrayfield upset the bookies didn’t see coming. And finally, Ireland v Scotland, where we backed Ireland at 1.50 — a more conservative pick but still the value play.
SUPER RUGBY 2026
Round 5 Results
Round 6 Predictions
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip For This Weekend
Toulouse away at Bordeaux at home is one of the best picks out there this weekend. Good luck!
NEW FEATURE: Rugby4Cast’s Top Handicap Tip
We have a new feature at the beta testing stage where we identify possible handicap opportunities in the market. Here we have a great example this weekend. We have the Bulls predicted to win by 12, so -1.5 @ 2.2 is a great opportunity.
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