Lots of great rugby action this weekend in the Rugby Championship and the Women’s World Cup. Check out our weekend preview of the action.
Last week, we analysed the general status of the Rugby Championship. You can read that here: https://sports4cast.com/rugby-championship-2025-tight-margins-rising-challengers-and-new-zealands-edge/
Rugby Championship Next Fixtures & Predictions
ROUND 3
The tournament continues with Argentina travelling to Australia for back-to-back Tests. The first in Queensland gives the Wallabies a 60% chance of victory, though Argentina at 37% cannot be discounted. It is close enough to go either way. It promises to be a great match, and both teams have their tails up.
The headline fixture, though, comes in Auckland, where New Zealand host South Africa. The All Blacks are rated 66% favourites, but the predicted scoreline of 21–19 shows how fine the margins could be. South Africa will know they must not only compete but realistically they need to obtain more points than New Zealand over the two matches.
The easiest manner to do this, obviously, is with a couple of victories. However, that looks a tall order, so they need to at least win one and obtain more bonus points than New Zealand. There are two ways to get bonus points, score 4+ tries or lose by less than 7. Assuming NZ and SA share the mini-series 1-1, South Africa need to lose by less than 7 and win by more than 7. They also need to ensure they match of better New Zealand’s try bonus points. This is what makes New Zealand such heavy favourites for the championship when compared to South Africa, despite South Africa having a kinder last round of matches.
Women’s World Cup
It’s the final round of group matches this weekend and it looks to be an absolute belter. It starts with Scotland taking on Canada to see who wins Pool B on Saturday. Canada are second in the World Rankings so it will be a tough ask for Scotland.
Then, England, the number one ranked side in the world take on Australia looking to seal Pool B. Australia will be looking for their first victory against England or, failing that, bonus points after drawing with the USA. The USA could sneak second spot if they turn around a a 135 point deficit.
On Sunday, New Zealand take on Ireland in a heavyweight clash to see who tops Pool C, whilst France take on South Africa to decide Pool D.
Pacific Nations Cup
Two matches in the Pacific Nations Cup round off the group stage. Fiji are favourites against Samoa and Japan are likely to beat USA.
Any Market Value out there?
The Rugby Championship is pretty accurately assessed. We would suggest SA are slightly overpriced to get the win in NZ. Similarly, we would stay clear of the Australia price at home to Argentina.
In the Women’s World Cup there is value out there, although there is not too much data to support findings so do approach with caution. Fiji could be underpriced against Wales as both teams seek their first points of the tournament.
There are plenty of value bets out there, but you have to search a bit farther afield. In the New Zealand regional championship and the French D2 there are plenty of opportunities. Sign up to get all the tips, but we’ll leave you with our tip of the weekend: Waikato away at Manawatu. Look for odds over 1.38 as they are 80% favourites according to our model and underpriced in the market.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below for all rugby tournaments.
