Welcome to the Weekend Preview 24 October. The rugby calendar rolls on with the NPC Final in New Zealand, full domestic action in England, and early-season intrigue across the URC. We break down the key fixtures, the latest title probabilities, and the best value our model has found heading into the weekend.
The NZ National Provincial Championship
NPC Final – Canterbury v Otago
Our Weekend Preview 24 October starts with the final of the Provincial Championship which reaches its climax as two heavyweights collide. Both Canterbury and Otago came through their semi-finals impressively, and it’s no surprise to see the pre-season favourites face off for the title.
Our model gives Canterbury a commanding 76% chance of victory. The bookmakers broadly agree, though they rate Otago slightly higher than we do. There’s limited value in the market, but if you’re hunting small edges:
Earlier on in the season Otago edged out Canterbury in a classic, 38-36 so expect the final to be closer than maybe the computer expects.
The Gallagher Prem – Round 6 Preview
After a high-scoring round last week, the Premiership continues to deliver drama. Saracens, fresh off their demolition of Sale (scoring over 60 points), face a tough trip to Northampton in what should be the match of the weekend. Our model gives Saracens a narrow edge, but the betting markets are already tight — little value to be found here.
Elsewhere:
- Exeter v Gloucester – Exeter are favourites, though Gloucester retain a 21% chance of victory.
- Harlequins v Newcastle – A comfortable win expected for Quins.
- Bath v Bristol – The West Country Derby sees Bath as heavy favourites once again.
- Leicester v Sale – Leicester are backed to win, though our numbers rate Sale slightly higher than the market.
Overall, Bath remain clear frontrunners, with our model giving them a 50% chance of lifting the trophy compared to 44% from the bookies. We would suggesting steering clear of Saracens at this point as they are overvalued by 9 points. Bristol at 26.0 are a worthwhile long shot at this point.
The United Rugby Championship – Early Season Trends
The URC table is taking shape, and some early pricing discrepancies have emerged. Despite winning just one of their opening four, the bookmakers still hand Leinster a 60% chance of retaining the title. Our model is far less convinced, cutting that figure to 30%. Leinster should be fairly comfortable winners to get back on track at home to Zebre this weekend.
URC STANDINGS
Munster’s perfect start (4 from 4) makes them one to watch, though it’s still early days. It´s a MASSIVE game away to Leinster to prove their title merits.
Value Hunting Elsewhere
This week’s best betting value lies in France, particularly in Pro D2, where our model has identified several solid edges.
Our Top Tip of the Weekend comes from Colomiers v Vannes: Colomiers hold a 70% chance of victory (vs 62% from the bookies). Value threshold: 1.59+ with odds of 1.64 currently available.
Other noteworthy options:
Lions v Ulster (URC) – Look for 1.97+, with 2.2 available.
Stade Français v Montpellier (Top 14) – Look for 1.43+, with 1.46 currently available.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
