Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 17 October. It´s another stacked few days across New Zealand, England, Ireland, and France, we preview the NPC semi-finals and the domestic action in England and the best value our algo has found amidst it all.
The NZ National Provincial Championship
NPC Semi-Finals – Canterbury and Otago Edge Ahead
We start our Weekend Preview over in New Zealand. The Provincial Championship has reached its semi-final stage, and the margins are tight. Our model leans towards Canterbury and Otago making it to the final, though both fixtures could hinge on fine moments.
- Otago (53%) v Bay of Plenty (45%) – Dunedin
Otago’s home advantage and clinical finishing tip the balance ever so slightly. Expect a very tight contest. - Canterbury (75%) v Hawke’s Bay (22%) – Christchurch
Canterbury remain tournament favourites, powered by their depth and game control. Hawke’s Bay can threaten from turnover ball, but the numbers point decisively to the red-and-blacks.
If the predictions hold, we’re set for a heavyweight final between Canterbury and Otago — a classic South island rivalry that should deliver a proper spectacle.
The Gallagher Prem – Round 4 Preview
After a frenetic opening few rounds, this weekend’s action brings clarity on which teams are genuine contenders. The algorithm’s latest projections show that this week should be a cracker. Whilst money-bags Newcastle should be comfortably beaten by Northampton on Friday evening, the rest of the games should be a great watch. Look out for James O’Connor returning to English rugby with Leicester, and Len Ikitau igniting the Exeter backline.
Overall, Bath remain the team to beat:
URC and Top 14 Highlights
The United Rugby Championship continues with a full slate of fixtures. The big match this week is Leinster v Munster. Although plenty of blood and thunder should be on display, we predict only one winner: Leinster by 10.
Top 14 & ProD2 – Value Hunting in France
This week’s best value lies in France, with our new grading system in the Premium Betting Model identifying several A grade opportunities:
- Carcassonne (46%) v Colomiers (51%)
2.46+ is great value on a Colomiers victory, with 2.87 available. - Perpignan (45%) v Bordeaux (53%)
Perpignan are completely mispriced by the bookies. They actually have a 45% chance rather than the 25% the bookies give them. Look for 2.33+ and you can get 4.2 as of Thirsday evening. - Pau (60%) v Toulouse (37%)
The market underestimates Pau’s chances; 1.74+ is excellent value.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
