“The All Blacks’ superior ranking is almost perfectly balanced by England’s home advantage, suggesting fine margins and potentially one moment of brilliance deciding it.”
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 14 November. England face New Zealand in the pick of the matches this weekend. Scotland will be looking to bounce back from a heart-breaking defeat to the All Blacks when they face the dangerous Pumas.
Weekend Preview 14 November: Autumn Internationals
Autumn Internationals – Week Two Recap
The big clash of the round came in Paris, where South Africa continued their dominance, edging France 17–13, a result 11 points better than our predicted margin — further evidence of their grip at the top of the rankings. In Edinburgh, Scotland pushed New Zealand all the way after trailing 17–0 early on, clawing back brilliantly before eventually losing 25–17, four points closer than expected.
At Twickenham, England beat a spirited Fiji 30–18, though Fiji impressed with their creativity and power before England’s bench depth took over. Argentina delivered as predicted with a comfortable thrashing of Wales, while the shock of the weekend came in Florence, where Italy beat Australia 26–19. It was a stunning result but not entirely unexpected — our model had identified Italy as a great opportunity last week, with the bookmakers having undervalued their chances.
Autumn Internationals – Round Two
This week sees another stacked schedule:
- Italy v South Africa
- Wales v Japan
- France v Fiji
- Ireland v Australia
- Scotland v Argentina
- New Zealand v England
Two matches stand out as genuine 50–50 contests. The first is the headline clash at Twickenham, England v New Zealand. Our model gives New Zealand a 53% chance and England a 44% chance, making this one a match which could go either way. The All Blacks’ superior ranking is almost perfectly balanced by England’s home advantage, suggesting fine margins and potentially one moment of brilliance deciding it.
The other intriguing tie is Scotland v Argentina — another near-even contest. Our model puts Scotland at 53% and Argentina at 44%, and given how closely these sides sit in our rankings (Argentina 6th, Scotland 7th), this could be one of the best games of the weekend. Don’t be surprised if the Pumas take it — this fixture often turns on momentum. Scotland will be looking to bounce back after taking New Zealand all the way last weekend. Argentina, on the other hand had a comfortable victory over Wales to get their Autumn going. Will Argentina be a little too fresh for Scotland?
The other matches this weekend look fairly one-sided. Italy did brilliantly to upset the odds against Argentina, but following that up against South Africa looks a very tall order. Aforementioned Australia should be on the wrong end of the score-line against Ireland meaning their Autumn isn’t getting any easier.
The Rankings
At the top of the global ladder, South Africa continue to stretch their lead over New Zealand, while there’s now a noticeable gap between the All Blacks and Ireland, who are struggling to keep pace after their Chicago defeat. England are closing the gap to the big four, and a victory against New Zealand could see them close that gap even further. Argentina and Scotland will be fighting for sixth place this weekend.
The Betting Outlook
The betting markets are broadly in sync with our projections this week, but there is one clear value opportunity: Wales v Japan. We rate Japan at 31% to win, while the bookmakers have them down at 22%, meaning they are significantly undervalued.
- Value threshold: 3.47
- Odds available: 5.00
Elsewhere, Scotland are slightly overpriced by the market (our model: 54%, bookies: 62%), so best avoided, and England are in a similar position (our model: 46%, bookies: 54%). New Zealand are correctly priced (our model: 51%, bookies: 50%), but if their odds lengthen closer to kick-off, there could be value in backing the All Blacks.
Best Value Elsewhere
The best betting opportunity outside the international fixtures comes in France’s Pro D2, where Aurillac host Provence. Our model gives Aurillac a 61% chance of victory compared to 51% in the market, offering a tidy margin for value hunters.
- Value threshold: 1.71
A reminder that there’s no domestic rugby this weekend, with both the Gallagher Premiership and United Rugby Championship taking a break for the Autumn Internationals.
As always, you can find full data, value picks, and match-by-match predictions at sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
