Australia dealt South Africa a telling blow to upset the odds and leave New Zealand as clear favourites for the Rugby Championship. Within a single weekend, the balance of power shifted. New Zealand’s 41–24 win in Córdoba over Argentina went largely to script, though the contest was tougher than the score suggests. In Johannesburg, South Africa raced into a 22–0 lead, only to collapse as Australia produced a comeback for the ages.
New Zealand had to work hard. Argentina threatened a second-half surge, narrowing the gap with long spells of possession, but the All Blacks struck late to pull clear. In Johannesburg, South Africa looked unstoppable in the opening half hour, before Australia steadied with a try before the break. The second half was one-way traffic. The Wallabies ran in tries, stretched the Springboks across the park, and stormed home 38–22. It was a stunning result that damages South Africa’s title hopes.
Before the tournament, South Africa’s favourable schedule made them slight favourites. That edge has gone. Their failure to collect a single bonus point handed New Zealand the advantage. The Rugby4Cast model now gives the All Blacks an 83% chance of taking the title. South Africa have slipped to 11%. Australia’s revival keeps them in the mix, while Argentina remain outsiders despite signs of progress.
Next Fixtures & Predictions
ROUND 2
The second round gives South Africa a chance to respond. They host Australia in Cape Town on Saturday afternoon. The model is emphatic: the Springboks have an 89% chance of victory, with a forecast score of 30–18.
The bookies are in complete agreement. Despite Australia’s shock win, South Africa are backed to bounce back – both by the markets and the Algorithm. What this means is that, despite what you might think, there is little opportunity for betting this weekend on the Rugby Championship – as you can see the model doesn’t recommend a bet on any of the outcomes available.
Later that evening, Argentina face New Zealand in Buenos Aires. Home support should help, but the model still leans heavily towards the All Blacks. They have a 78% chance of winning, with a predicted score of 21–35. Argentina’s near 20% chance, however, is not negligible; they have upset bigger sides before.
For South Africa, Saturday is already a must-win. For New Zealand, it is a chance to tighten their grip on the Championship.
You can check out more of the predictions and the betting analysis below.
