The model, however, is not swayed by the narrative around Arsenal’s mental fragility and is not caught up in the hype that they could be bottling it.
Weekend Preview 9 April – The Weekend Arsenal Lose Control?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview 9 April. We have a full weekend of Premier League action what seems like and age. A lot has happened since we broke up for the international break. Arsenal lost the League Cup Final to Manchester City, were bundled out of the FA Cup by Championship Southampton. When it comes to the business end of the season, are Arsenal crumbling yet again?
Premier League Standings
Arsenal hold a nine point lead over Manchester City with just seven games to play, which is a commanding position at this stage of the season. Manchester City do have a game in hand and Arsenal must still travel to the Etihad, so theoretically that lead could be cut to just three points, though City would still need to win their game in hand and then beat Arsenal directly, meaning the Gunners remain very much in the driving seat. Recent results do raise a question, however. Consecutive cup defeats, the League Cup final defeat to Manchester City and a humbling FA Cup quarter final loss to Southampton, have prompted genuine concern about whether Arsenal are once again losing control of a title challenge that looked so assured. A 1-0 victory in midweek away to Sporting Lisbon in their Champions League quarter final was a welcome boost, but it has not been enough to fully allay suspicions that they could be bottling it once again, and this weekend’s fixture will be nothing short of crucial.
Elsewhere in the Premier League, the competition for Champions League places, which has been confirmed to extend to fifth position, is very tight. Manchester United are sitting pretty in third, closely followed by Aston Villa in fourth with just one point separating the two sides, but then it gets very close between Liverpool and Chelsea on 49 and 48 points respectively, scrapping for fifth and sixth. Brentford and Everton are both on 46, Fulham on 44, Brighton and Sunderland on 43, and even Newcastle and Bournemouth on 42 points in 12th and 13th still harbour ambitions of sneaking into Europe. Champions League qualification has probably moved beyond realistic reach for Brighton, Sunderland, Newcastle and Bournemouth at this stage, but the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Conference League spots are very much up for grabs, and there is plenty still to play for in the run in to the end of the season.
At the other end of the table, Wolves and Burnley are already down, and a fascinating three way fight between West Ham, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest has emerged. Forest’s victory over Tottenham contributed directly to Igor Tudor’s prompt departure from the Spurs dugout, and De Zerbi coming in to replace him. The question now is whether it is too little too late and whether Tottenham will go down. West Ham under Nuno Espirito Santo have improved dramatically as the season has progressed, and with so much still unresolved at both ends of the table, the final weeks of the Premier League season promise to be very exciting.
Premier League Outright Chances
The model, however, is not swayed by the narrative around Arsenal’s mental fragility and is not caught up in the hype that they could be bottling it. It gives them a quite staggeringly high 97% chance of winning the title, so as far as the model is concerned it is Arsenal’s to keep, and they cannot bottle it at this stage. At the other end of the table, the model sees the relegation fight as one between West Ham and Tottenham, giving West Ham a 52% chance of going down and Tottenham a 36% chance. Forest’s relegation odds have dropped right down to 10%, so while the battle remains fascinating, the model is fairly clear on who it expects to be dragged into the deepest trouble between now and the end of the season.
What the Bookies Think
The bookies are overvaluing Man City by a 10% margin so do not be tempted. Arsenal could be a value play at this stage, even at such small margins. Look out for value at 1.2 and above.
The Relegation Dogfight
Value alert! There is vaue on West Ham as bookies have them priced 5 points below what we consider are their relegation chances. Look for value at 2.3+. We have identified odds of 2.7 out there which is very good value at this stage of the season.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
This weekend, Premier League action kicks off on Friday night with West Ham against Wolves in a match that is absolutely crucial for West Ham as time continues to run out for them. This should be one of the more favourable fixtures remaining on their schedule against the basement club, though Wolves have improved considerably in recent weeks. The model gives West Ham a fairly strong 53% chance of victory.
On Saturday at 12:30pm, Arsenal look to kick on in what appears on paper to be a very difficult home match against a Bournemouth side that have been on an excellent unbeaten run. The model gives Arsenal a very strong 69% chance of success, which could possibly be slightly overstating their chances given that no fixture in recent weeks has been truly straightforward for them. The model may be a touch overbullish here, but it is interesting that while the noise in the wider football environment suggests Arsenal are in difficulty, it firmly expects them to get the win at home to Bournemouth, which would be a very big boost to their title winning chances.
Also on Saturday at 3:00pm, Brighton have the slight edge away at Burnley as they look to push on for Europa League qualification. Brentford at home to Everton promises to be a good game, with both sides battling for European spots. Everton have been in excellent form in 2026, so much so that if the table were calculated on points obtained this calendar year alone, they would sit third. Brentford are an extremely well organised side, however, and this one could genuinely go either way. Liverpool face Fulham at Anfield at 5:30pm, and despite the question marks hanging over Arne Slot following a very poor 2-0 defeat to PSG that could have been considerably worse, the model gives them a comfortable chance of picking up the three points at home.
On Sunday at 2:00pm there are a number of interesting fixtures. Sunderland host Tottenham in what is Roberto De Zerbi’s first match in charge at Spurs, and they must produce some kind of result or at least a performance capable of lifting the atmosphere around a club that is drifting ever closer to the Championship. The model suggests they are in for a tough afternoon up north, though it is worth noting that Sunderland’s home form has not been especially impressive of late. Crystal Palace host Newcastle in what is something of a toss-up between two sides who have not been in particularly good form recently, though the three week break may well have done Newcastle a lot of good with additional time on the training ground under Eddie Howe, and it is something of a must-win if they are serious about pushing into the European places. Aston Villa travel to Nottingham Forest in a match that could be tighter than expected, but Villa do have the edge and the model is leaning their way.
Then at 4:30pm comes the standout fixture of the weekend as Chelsea head to Manchester City. City quite simply have to win this one to maintain any meaningful pressure on Arsenal, and Chelsea, well, you could get anything from them on any given day. The Enzo Fernandez situation, banished from first team duties by Liam Rossini over a reported comment about preferring the weather in Madrid, adds a further layer of intrigue, and the model is leaning towards Manchester City to take advantage. Finally on Monday night at 8:00pm, Manchester United host Leeds at Old Trafford, and it really is remarkable the sense of calm and stability that Michael Carrick has installed at the club after the chaos of the Ruben Amorim era. The model gives United the edge at 55%, and on current momentum that feels about right.
Scotland – It’s So Exciting!! (For A Change)
Last weekend, bottom of the table Livingston managed to hold Hearts to a 2-2 draw, and the question now is whether Hearts are slipping up at the worst possible moment. That result has cut their lead to just one point over Rangers and three points over Celtic. Rangers themselves had an excellent weekend, beating Dundee United 4-2, while Celtic produced a fairly dramatic 2-1 victory away at Dundee FC. After all of that, Hearts cling to just a one point lead at the top and the model’s title probabilities have swung heavily in Rangers’ favour for pretty much the first time this season. Rangers are now the model’s favourites at 51%, Celtic sit in second, and Hearts have slipped all the way down to just 18% after being at around 50% as recently as last week. It is quite staggering how quickly the picture has changed and it makes for a very exciting run in to the end of the Scottish season.
This weekend, Hearts are at home to Motherwell, Celtic host St Mirren at Parkhead, and Rangers travel to Falkirk. There is everything still to play for north of the border.
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