Arsenal fans, you can relax. Arsenal still have a whopping 83% chance of winning the title compared to just 16% for Man City
Have Arsenal Bottled The League?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for Friday 20 February.
On Wednesday night, Arsenal were 2 0 up away at Wolves and cruising. They were heading for a 7 point lead with just 11 games to go. Arsenal supporters could be forgiven for thinking that the league was wrapped up. The F4C model has had Arsenal at 80%+ for quite some time now. Despite their very average form over the last ten games, which we had suggested showed the wheels were starting to come off, Man City would obligingly go and drop points, as did Aston Villa. No one really seemed to want to win the league.
However, Arteta has set his team up to be functional and effective, but this led them to take their foot off the pedal. Wolves, who have improved significantly under Rob Edwards, suddenly sniffed a chance. Lo and behold, Arsenal were desperate for the full time whistle at the end, but Wolves swung in one more cross, a defensive calamity ensued, and Wolves got the equaliser.
(As an aside, Wolves are not the worst Premier League team ever. They may end up with the lowest points tally, but put this team up against that famous Derby side and it would be a cricket score. They would be mid table in many a season gone by. Such is the financial and competitive strength of the Premier League).
So instead of a comfortable 7 point lead, Arsenal are nervously looking over their shoulder as City are now only 5 points back with a game in hand. Plus, Arsenal still have to visit the Etihad. So what does the algorithm say? Have Arsenal blown it?
Well, Arsenal fans, you can relax. Arsenal still have a whopping 83% chance of winning the title compared to just 16% for Man City. Despite the negative press, the algorithm has run the fixtures and Arsenal have the easier run in. It is very unlikely that City will win all their games. The league has simply become too tough. All in all, everything points to an Arsenal title this year, if you strip away the noise.
Of course, stripping away the noise is what Arsenal have famously been incapable of doing in recent history. Arteta would like to think they are a robotic, set piece, functional winning machine. Sport at the highest level suggests otherwise. Arsenal will hear the podcast chatter, the memes, and the jokes. Will they be able to resist succumbing? Man City tend to get good at this time of year and, despite malfunctioning for much of the season, could the City winning machine kick into gear?
Interestingly enough, the bookies see it almost identically to F4C, and there is no value in the market.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
Aston Villa look to bounce back from a bad FA Cup home loss to Newcastle, as they host Leeds, who have done very well and are almost certain to finish in mid table. Aston Villa are strong favourites as the race for Champions League football heats up.
Brentford take on Brighton in a battle of “small clubs doing well”. Usually Brighton would be slightly ahead, but Brentford are having a fine season and are in with a great shout of European football. Expect a tight game.
Chelsea should comfortably dispatch Burnley, and West Ham v Bournemouth will be a good game as a resurgent West Ham look to beat the drop.
Manchester City face Newcastle at home on Saturday night. Newcastle are looking for their fourth away victory in a row in all competitions, but Manchester City smell blood in the water. Expect a City win.
Crystal Palace should beat Wolves, but Wolves are improving and Palace are pretty awful these days and in a bit of disarray.
Nottingham Forest host Liverpool as they fight to stay clear of relegation, but Liverpool should be too strong as they are returning to some half decent form.
Sunderland face Fulham in a match between two surprising contenders for Europe which has draw written all over it.
Then the big one on Sunday afternoon in the North London derby. Tottenham, with a new manager in Igor Tudor, will be looking to really put the boot into a deflated Arsenal. That is one way of looking at it. The other is the Algo’s: a straightforward Arsenal victory.
Everton host Manchester United on Monday as Manchester United look to get back to winning ways, but Everton will be a tough test. This could go either way.
Scotland (because every other league in Europe is boring)
Rangers beat Hearts in a crunch game last weekend (as we predicted) to really hurt Hearts’ chances of taking the title. What it has actually done following Celtic’s victory over Kilmarnock, is to increae Celtic’s chances considerably and they are back up over 50%. If Celtic win their game in hand, they will all be level on points which is very exciting.
This weekend, Hearts should beat Falkirk at home, Celtic should beat Hibernian, and Rangers should beat Livingston away, so we should be as we are at the end of the weekend.
Top Tip of the Weekend
There are misprices galore over the Andes in Chile. Huachipato (pronounced Wachi-pato), are very undervalued at home to Palestino.
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