Very quickly, Italy could be 0 and 3 with the visit of England to come. Heading into the wooden spoon decider against Wales in Cardiff on the back of five losses could be a real spirit killer.
The second stop in our Six Nations 2026 preview series is Italy, a side that continues to sit in a familiar but slightly shifting position within the championship. Unlike Wales, Italy enter this tournament with a clearer sense of progress over the past few seasons, even if that progress has yet to translate into consistent results against the top tier.
Italy are no longer automatic wooden spoon candidates, but the numbers still suggest a campaign focused more on avoiding last place than challenging the upper half of the table.
Tournament Chances
Italian rugby is looking up. A great new crop of players, potential depth, an Italian would probably be looking towards this tournament with more optimism than many a year. Unfortunately, the Six Nations is a bit of a bastard (if you excuse my French). Due to the relative strength of the teams and the draw, Italy still have an 80% chance of finishing in the bottom two.
Across 10,000 simulations, Italy are most likely to finish fifth, with a 47% probability, and have a 33% chance of finishing last. A top-four finish remains unlikely, while anything higher than that would require multiple results to break in their favour.
In short, Italy are projected to sit above Wales, but still some distance behind Scotland and the traditional top three.
Recent Form
Italy’s last ten matches show a mixed but improving profile. There have been encouraging wins against Chile, Namibia, Australia and Wales, alongside competitive losses such as the narrow defeat to Ireland in last year’s Six Nations. At the same time, heavy defeats against France and South Africa underline the gap that still exists against elite opposition.
Crucially, Italy have shown an increasing ability to win close games against comparable sides, something that had long been missing. They are now ranked 10th in the World as per our rankings but with a considerable gap between them and Wales in 11th.
2026 Six Nations Fixtures and Predictions
This year, Italy have two home matches and three away, which inevitably makes the task more difficult for a lower-ranked side. The key fixture for Italy is the opening game at home to Scotland. Scotland, as we will explore in their preview, find themselves at something of a crossroads: capable of challenging the strongest teams, but repeatedly unable to convert that potential into results. If Scotland are not fully firing, Italy could spring a genuine surprise. With a 33% chance of victory, it would not be especially bold to suggest that an upset is a realistic possibility.
That opening match takes on added importance given what follows. Italy then travel to Ireland, where they have a very slim chance of success at just 5%, before another daunting away trip to France. The difficulty of that sequence cannot be overstated. Italy could quickly find themselves 0–3 heading into the fourth round, with England still to visit Rome.
By that point, the wooden spoon decider away to Wales looks a lot trickier. While Italy are given a 55% chance of victory in Cardiff, that pre-tournament projection may look optimistic if confidence and momentum have been eroded by a run of heavy defeats.
Any Causes for Optimism?
Italy enter this tournament as a lower table contender, but Italian rugby is definitely on an upward trajectory. However, we have all, repeatedly, been taken in by the Italians over the years, thinking that change was just around the corner and have been continually let down. You would have to be a fool to fall for them again. With Capuozzo and a developing young core, there is a strong temptation to be foolish again.
