The model suggests that West Ham are still at greater risk than Spurs to go down. The bookies aren’t so sure and there is value accordingly on West Ham at 2.5+.
European Major Leagues Review
With the international break giving us a moment to breathe, it is a good time to take stock of where the season stands across Europe’s major leagues. We’ll start with the Premier League where Arsenal have all but wrapped up the title at one end and their great rivals and sliding into the relegation zone at the other.
English Premier League
Arsenal have one hand on the title at 97% win probability, with Manchester City their only realistic challenger at 3%. Below them the top five race is genuinely open, with Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea all in contention. At the bottom Tottenham and West Ham are in real danger at 39% and 49% relegation probability respectively, while Burnley and Wolves are already down. It is going to be fascinating to see whether Tottenham can pull themselves together to escape relegation, or West Ham can continue their relative upward curve and escape. My money is on Spurs to go down but I wouldn’t bet on it (see below).
What the Bookies Think
The bookies are not so ebullient as F4C, so watch out for value at 1.2+ on Arsenal and steer clear of Man City.
The Relegation Dogfight
With Igor Tudor steering Tottenham into the rocks, have we undervalued them to go down? The model suggests that West Ham are still at greater risk than Spurs to go down. The bookies aren’t so sure and there is value accordingly on West Ham at 2.5+.
Scotland – It’s ridiculous! Hearts are back to being favourites
A Tale of Dundees: Celtic lost 2-0 to Dundee United last weekend to hand the initiative back to Hearts, who beat Dundee F.C. Rangers beat Aberdeen to move ahead of Celtic as Hearts’ most likely challengers.
Hearts have now gone out to 55% chance of winning the title whilst Celtic have dropped back to a miserly 16%. Are Rangers now the only ones who can stop Hearts?
Outright Scottish Premiership – A Great Value Opportunity?
Hearts are underpriced whilst Celtic haven’t been priced out of it yet by the bookies which is a mistake! Hearts are value at 2.2+.
Italy Serie A
Inter Milan are almost certain champions at 93%, with AC Milan and Napoli long shots at 4% and 3% respectively. The more interesting story is the relegation battle, where Cremonese and Lecce are in real danger, and Pisa and Verona already condemned.
There might be some slight value on Inter if you’re sharp. Look for odds of 1.3+. AC Milan and Napoli are overpriced.
Spain – La Liga
Barcelona are heavy favourites at 83% with Real Madrid their only realistic challenger at 17%. The title race is essentially a two horse affair at this point. At the other end it is a really interesting affair. Levante look likely to go down at 74%, and Real Oviedo are virtually certain at 98%. But after them, Mallorca are in serious trouble at 49% relegation probability, and Elche and even Sevilla could be sucked into the bottom 3. One to keep an eye on.
La Liga Outright Odds
Barcelona are pretty much correctly priced by the bookies, although Real Madrid are very overpriced. Steer clear if you think Madrid can claw it back.
France – Ligue 1
Paris SG at 97% tells the story of French football in one number. Lens are the longest of longshots with a 3% chance of PSG blowing the title. Lyon, Marseille, Lille and Monaco are scrapping for the European spots. Nantes and Metz are down at the bottom, with Auxerre very likely to join them.
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