While everywhere else there is a procession to the title, we should all be tuning into the only league with real drama: Scotland. And that’s not something you can normally say.
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 9 January 2026
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for 9 January 2026.
With the FA Cup taking centre stage this weekend, there’s a pause in Premier League action — the perfect moment to take stock of how things stand both in England and across Europe as we ask the question: Should they just hand the trophies out already?
After the midweek results and last weekend’s fixtures, one thing is clear: Arsenal have seized control of the title race. Our model now gives them a commanding 87% chance of winning the Premier League — their highest figure yet. Five points clear at the top and with a game in hand over both Manchester City and Aston Villa, the Gunners have surged back to their early-season form. While five points isn’t an insurmountable gap, time is running out. We’re past the halfway stage, and unless City can find consistency quickly, Arsenal may cruise to their first league crown in two decades. Villa’s title charge, meanwhile, fizzled before it ever truly caught fire.
Across Europe, a similar pattern of dominance is emerging. In Spain, Barcelona have an 80% chance of winning La Liga, with Real Madrid down at 18% after a stuttering campaign. In Germany, Bayern Munich continue their near-annual procession with a 97% chance of claiming the Bundesliga. Over in France, PSG are just as comfortable, sitting at 87% and on track for yet another Ligue 1 title.
Only in Italy does there appear to be any genuine competition. Inter Milan lead the way with a 71% chance of winning Serie A, four points ahead of Napoli and AC Milan — though Milan do have a game in hand. Inter’s experience and composure in tight situations count heavily in their favour, making them strong favourites to retain control through the spring.
And then there’s Scotland, where the drama has truly taken hold. After a turbulent run under Wilfried Nancy, Celtic’s title probability has fallen to 37%, though they remain narrow favourites. Rangers sit close behind on 34%, and Hearts are right in the mix on 29%, despite leading the table by six points. It’s the most open Scottish Premiership in years — and with Martin O’Neill back on the touchline after winning seven of eight matches in his interim spell earlier this season, Celtic’s hopes aren’t dead yet, but they’re under serious pressure.
So, while everywhere else there is a procession to the title, we should all be tuning into the only league with real drama: Scotland. And that’s not something you can normally say.
European Leagues Season Winners Value
In La Liga, Real Madrid are overpriced to mount a title challenge. Correspondingly, Barcelona look excellent value at 1.5+
Inter Milan are much stronger than the bookies anticipate, so odds of 1.7+ represents excellent value.
Football4Cast Tip of the Weekend
Leverkusen are undervalued at home to Stuttgart. Look for odds of 1.85+.
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