The bookies have France as outright favourites at 58% which is far too strong. We have them at 31%.
The penultimate stop in our Six Nations 2026 preview series is France. For a team so talented, led by the magnificent Dupont, surely another 6 Nations title is on the horizon? Well, the model has them as favourites for the Grand Slam, but it is Ireland who are favourites for the title. Let’s dig a little deeper.
Tournament Chances
As we mentioned in our Ireland preview, a quirk of the fixture schedule has led to France being the most likely to win the Grand Slam (13%) but second favourite to win the whole competition behind Ireland. France are stocked with incredible talent and even have the luxury of leaving out star names such as Penaud and Fikou from their squad, with new up and coming youngsters on the rise. As we have noted throughout these previews, it will be a three way shootout between Ireland, England and France, and incredibly difficult to pick between them. It promises to be a fascinating tournament.
Recent Form
Following the Autumn Internationals, France have actually slipped to fifth in our World Rankings, behind Ireland and England, but the margins are incredibly tight. Whilst they beat Australia and Fiji, both the matches were closer than expected. There was also a damaging defeat at home to South Africa, which was a real setback in France’s progression towards the next World Cup. Last Summer, France lost their three matches on tour to New Zealand, however, they did leave most of their star players at home and used the tour to develop younger players. France are the reigning 6 Nations champions, but surprisingly they have only won twice in the last ten years in 2022 and 2025.
2026 Six Nations Fixtures and Predictions
France face Ireland in the first match of the tournament at home in what is a very important match but maybe not quite as tournament deciding as some are saying. France also face England at home in the final game of the tournament which could be a tournament decider. Basically, all of the matches between France, Ireland and England are statistical toss-ups. If each side wins one and loses one, then the other fixtures take on great significance. Away at Wales and home to Italy should be comfortable victories. They key fixture is away at Scotland. England also have to travel to Scotland whilst Ireland have Scotland at home. It is this which makes it more likely that France win a Grand Slam (they have Ireland and England at home), but that Ireland are more likely to win the Championship overall.
Betting Opportunities
The bookies have France as outright favourites at 58% which is far too strong. We have them at 31%.
Similarly, France are wayyyy overpriced for the Grand Slam. Just under 50% of Six Nations have finished in a Grand Slam, and in a year where there are 3 very strong sides, and at least one other capable of upsetting anybody on their day, it feels more unlikely this year!
