Steer clear of International Fixtures for now. There’s clearer value elsewhere.
International Break
Welcome to the this week’s Weekend Preview. It’s the early season international break putting a handbrake on all things Premier League with World Cup Qualifiers taking place around the globe. In Europe there isn’t too much jeapordy at the moment as England look to beat the mighty Andorra on Friday night before travelling to Seria on Wednesday.
However, over in South America, World Cup Qualification remains a facinating affair, albeit less than what it used to be. With the top 6 (of 10) qualifying directly and the 7th place nation entering into a playoff, you really have to make an effort to not qualify. Chile are pulling out all the stops, with their golden generation of 2014 on their last legs a few years ago, they are propping up the table in last place and face Brazil away and Uruguay at home. Unless they pull out two surprise victories it will be a miserable qualifying campaign for the Condors.
South America’s qualifying double-header sees Argentina host Venezuela before travelling to Ecuador, while Brazil face Chile then Bolivia. Uruguay meet Peru and then visit Chile, with Paraguay and Colombia chasing vital points of their own. The key subplot remains the fight for seventh: Venezuela, away to Argentina then home to Colombia, hold the advantage over Bolivia, who face Colombia and Brazil.
Weekend Preview: This Weekend’s Value
If we have to steer clear of the international fixtures, where can we still find value? Thanks to the algorithm scanning bets worldwide, opportunities remain — though often a little farther afield. In Spain’s Segunda División, perhaps the standout pick is Mirandés away at Albacete: we give them a 52% chance compared to the bookmakers’ 26%, making it one of the clearest value bets around. In Brazil’s Serie B, Ferroviária are rated at 57% away to Coritiba, against market odds of just 18%. The gap is striking, though with limited data it may be one to approach cautiously.
Back in England, League One offers Leighton Orient away at Port Vale, with a 49% chance against the bookmakers’ 33% — look for anything above 2.5. In League Two, Walsall at home to Chesterfield also stands out, with our model giving them a 46% chance versus 36% from the market. Not all games are worth backing: Huddersfield at home to Peterborough (bookies 66%, our model 50%) and Notts County at home both look overpriced. Instead, Fleetwood Town away could be the smarter play, with 33% compared to a market 27%.
Overall, the best value this weekend is likely to be found in the lower leagues of England, with additional opportunities in Spain and Brazil.
Weekend Preview: Outright Markets
With the international break, it’s a good time to step back and look at the outright markets to see where the value lies.
Premier League
In the Premier League, Liverpool’s strong start — capped by a crucial win away at Newcastle — combined with Manchester City’s poor early season form, leaves them clear favourites in our model. We rate Liverpool at a 66% chance of winning the title, compared to just 44% implied by the market. That means anything over 1.8 is value, and odds of 2.5 are currently available. By contrast, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea may look tempting in the bookies’ prices, but our model suggests they are all overvalued.
The Championship
Dropping down to the Championship, Birmingham remain the standout play. We give them a 50% chance of finishing in the top two, compared to just 23% from the market. Anything above 2.5 represents value, and odds of 4.5 are on offer. Ipswich Town, however, look overpriced at 33% — best to avoid.
League 1
In League One, Stockport look the strongest value in the outright market. Our model has them at 63%, against just 23% from the bookmakers. That translates to value above 1.9, and odds of 4.75 can be found — probably the best bet out there right now.
League 2
And in League Two, Gillingham stand out as well. We make them 51% likely to go up, while the bookies give only 19%. MK Dons and Chesterfield, though, look much less appealing and should be avoided.
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