Brentford are a standout option in the early Saturday kickoff at home to Manchester United.
The Premier League Preview
Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 25 September. Game week 6 in the Premier League. A fairly standard weekend of Premier League action with a ripsnorter at 4:30pm on Sunday as Newcastle host Arsenal.
The Premier League returns after an exciting weekend in which Arsenal and Manchester City, in a top-of-the-table clash, shared the spoils, while Liverpool beat Everton in the Merseyside derby to extend their lead at the top. Manchester United also surprised Chelsea with a 2-1 victory after the visitors went down to ten men early on when their goalkeeper was sent off.
This weekend kicks off with Brentford at home to Manchester United in the early game. Brentford have not started well under new management and face a challenging season ahead, although any match against United is usually a welcome one these days. The hosts are given a 43% chance of success.
At 3pm, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are all favourites in their respective matches against Burnley, Crystal Palace and Brighton. Leeds face Bournemouth in what should be a good contest, Leeds coming off the back of a 3-1 win over West Ham last weekend. At 5.30 on Saturday, Nottingham Forest host Sunderland. Forest will be hoping to build on their first point under new manager Ange Postecoglou, while Sunderland will look to continue the momentum from a creditable 1-1 draw against Aston Villa, achieved despite going down to ten men.
Saturday ends with the evening kick-off as Tottenham face Wolves. Wolves are in serious relegation trouble, while Tottenham, who drew last weekend, have been good under Thomas Frank but will want to convert performances into wins, with a 54% chance of success here.
On Sunday, Aston Villa desperately need a victory, with Unai Emery under pressure, and they have a 52% chance at home to Fulham. Later, Newcastle host Arsenal in the big game of the weekend. Our model gives Arsenal a 48% chance, but with Newcastle’s strong home record and Arsenal’s recent struggles at St James’ Park, it would be no surprise if the hosts dent Arsenal’s title hopes.
The round finishes on Monday night with Everton at home to West Ham. Graham Potter’s side remain under real pressure, while Everton, buoyed by an improved second-half display in the derby despite losing 2-1, will approach the match with confidence.
Premier League Outright Chances
After the latest round of fixtures, Liverpool, unbeaten with a 100% record, have stretched their chances of winning the Premier League to a commanding 75%. Their nearest challengers, Arsenal, sit at 20%, which makes it look like the title race is already over. Is that a ridiculous conclusion after only five games? Probably. But it’s still a worrying picture for the rivals, particularly Arsenal and Manchester City.
The race for the Champions League places looks closer. Chelsea and Newcastle arer in the mix, although Aston Villa will be concerned, stuck down in mid-table. At the other end, relegation candidates Wolves and West Ham look in deep trouble – especially West Ham, for whom it would be a staggering fall from grace. They badly need results to change the mood. By contrast, the promoted sides Burnley and Leeds United can be optimistic, both shaping up for promising seasons and sitting safely in mid-table for now.
Premier League Value Bets
Value is always hard to find in the Premier League markets. However, this week there are a couple of options.
Brentford at home to Manchester United looks the standout value in the Premier League this weekend. Our model gives Brentford a 43% chance of success, compared with just 30% in the market. The bookmakers make United favourites at 49%, but we rate them far lower at 29%. That creates clear value on Brentford – anything above 3.1 is worth a look, and odds of 3.55 are available.
For those chasing a longer shot, Burnley are underpriced away at Manchester City. We put them at 15%, double the bookies’ 7%, with value starting at 9.2 and prices as high as 18% currently on offer.
Leeds are another option, rated at 44% by our model against the market’s 34% at home to Bournemouth. Here the value line is 3.1, and there’s room to find attractive odds.
Weekend Preview 25 September: Lower League Value & Elsewhere
Championship and Lower Leagues
There’s not much value at the top this weekend, but the lower leagues in England continue to throw up lots of opportunities:
Middlesbrough look the value play away at Southampton. Our model makes them favourites at 44%, compared to just 34% in the market, while Southampton’s 29% chance contrasts sharply with the bookmakers’ 43%. Anything above 3.1 for Boro is worth considering.
In League One, Barnsley at home to Port Vale also stands out. We rate them 57% against the market’s 49%, so anything above 2.2 looks good.
Dropping into League Two, Shrewsbury offer another option. We have them at 38% compared to 31% in the market, with value above 3.3 and odds of 3.35 available.
Around The World
Here is just a taste of the dozens of opportunities we have identified in leagues around the world…
Across Europe, Football4Cast favourites Mirandés in Spain’s Segunda División are strong at home to Zaragoza. We make them 64% against the bookies’ 40%, meaning anything over 2.0 looks solid, and 2.7 is currently available.
North of the border in Scotland, Dundee FC away at St Mirren look underpriced. We give them a 28% chance versus the market’s 19%, making anything above 4.9 a potential play, with 5.8 on offer.
In Mexico’s Primera Liga, León away at FC Juárez are rated 50% by our model versus 30% in the market — value above 2.5, with 3.65 available.
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