Coventry have surged to an 89% chance of promotion, a remarkable turnaround from their modest pre-season expectations
With the Premier League pausing for the international break, attention turns to the Championship, where the table has started to take shape — and it’s the new contenders, not the pre-season favourites, who are setting the pace.
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 14 November 2025
The Championship – A Deep Dive
The Story So Far
When the season began, the bookmakers expected a familiar script. The pre-season favourites were Ipswich, Southampton and Birmingham tipped to bounce straight back or continue upward trajectories after heavy summer spending. Sheffield United , and Leicester City were also predicted to be right in the mix. But after fifteen games, the reality couldn’t look more different.
Coventry City sit top of the table with 34 points from 15 games. Middlesbrough are five points behind in second, with Stoke City and Preston North End rounding out the top four. Hull City, Millwall, and Ipswich Town remain close behind.
At the other end, Sheffield United are in the relegation zone after just three wins in fifteen. Southampton and Ipswich are mid-table, both underperforming their expected goals, and Leicester City sit outside the play-off picture. At the other end of the table, Sheffield Wednesday are fulfilling pre-season predictions at the bottom of the table, with on and off-field struggles.
F4C’s Predictions
The latest Football4Cast projections reinforce what the table is already suggesting: this is shaping up to be a breakout season for the division’s overachievers.
- Coventry have surged to an 89% chance of promotion, a remarkable turnaround from their modest pre-season expectations.
- Middlesbrough, second favourites in our model, sit at 39%, with Millwall, Birmingham, and Ipswich all between 12–15%.
- Among the early favourites, Leicester (21%) and Ipswich (41%) still hold a glimmer of hope, but the rest are fading fast.
Further down, Wrexham, Derby, and West Brom hover around playoff contention but lack the defensive solidity to mount a sustained run. The Championship is such an exciting and dynamic league because of the playoff system. This gives lots of teams lots to play for throughout the year. West Brom, as low as 14th still have some chance of reaching the playoffs and shot at Premier League glory.
At the bottom, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich, and Sheffield United are deep in trouble — each with less than a 15% chance of survival. Wednesday are almost adrift already, with our model giving them just a 13% chance of avoiding the drop.
Betting Value in the Championship
Top 6 Finish
Our model highlights clear value opportunities in the Championship market. Value occurs when the Football4Cast probability exceeds the bookmaker’s implied odds, creating a positive expected return.
At the top, Coventry continue to dominate the model, with a 99% F4C probability compared to the market’s 94%. Middlesbrough offer the clearest current value among the top six. Middlesbrough have a 83% chance according to the model versus just 70% market odds. This gives a value threshold of 1.40 and the best odds currently available are 1.54 — modest but genuine value.
However, outside of the current top six, there are several value opportunities at this stage in the season. Birmingham and Millwall both appear undervalued. Birmingham (55% vs 43%) gives a value threshold of 2.20 and 2.75 is available. Millwall (60% vs 39%) is the big one here. The difference in the underlying probability numbers are considerable. The value threshold is 2, with odds of 2.75 available. Whilst not a sure thing, Millwall offer one of the best value oopportunities in the market.
Lower down, there is a little fancied club which also offers remarkable value: Preston North End. With a F4C probability of 42% of finishing in the top 6, the bookies only give them a 16% chance. That offers staggering value, and with odds over 8 available, a really good opportunity.
Relegation
At the other end of the table it is not good news for Sheffield Wednesday. Norwich are also in trouble and offer great value on going down with odds of 3.5 available.
Best Value This Weekend
Beyond England, our model flags two small but notable international opportunities this weekend.
In Brazil’s Serie B, Atlético Mineiro away at Coritibia offers excellent value. F4C gives them a 29% chance compared to 15% by the market, with a value threshold of 3.77 and best odds of 8.05 available.
In La Liga 2, Mirandés at home to Burgos are rated at 43% versus 32% from bookmakers. Look for value over 2.43, and odds of 3.38 are available — a solid margin according to our model.
Premium Members – Bet Grading
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, and plenty of picks identified to grow your betting pot, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
