The Premier League is back, but the real value lies elsewhere
The Premier League Is Back
Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 11 September. Domestic football returns after the international break, and the Premier League serves up a packed schedule.
Arsenal open the weekend at home to Nottingham Forest, a tough first test for the visitors under new management, with only a 14% chance of success. Ange Postecoglou has come in after the suprise sacking of Nuno Espirito Santo and has a tough task first up. Bournemouth host Brighton in one of the most even contests of the weekend, our model rating Bournemouth at 38% and Brighton at 34%.
Newcastle will be desperate to kick-start their season at home to Wolves, where they are strong favourites. Fans will be excited to see new signings, Wissa and Woltemade, lead a misfiring attack following the record sale of Alexander Isak to Liverpool. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, look strong favourites at 63% against Sunderland, despite the visitors’ promising start to the season. Everton at home to Aston Villa is effectively a coin toss, with Villa 37% and Everton 35%. Villa have struggled of late and Everton look revitalised under David Moyes and Jack Grealish in their fancy new stadium. Fulham v Leeds is suprisingly tight, with Leeds having a 35% chance of success against Fulham’s 36%.
Later on Saturday, West Ham host Tottenham in the 5.30 kick-off. Our model rates West Ham at 40% compared to Spurs’ 31%, suggesting value on the home side. Brentford at home to Chelsea follows in the evening, with Chelsea the clear favourites.
Sunday brings Burnley against Liverpool, where the visitors are heavily backed, before the weekend’s big game, the Manchester derby. City hold a commanding 67% chance of victory against United and should have the edge.
Weekend Preview: Premier League Betting Outlook
Value is hard to find in this week’s Premier League markets. Tottenham away at West Ham look overpriced by the bookmakers at 48% when our model puts them at just 31%. West Ham, conversely, look the better option at 40% against the market’s 30%, with odds of 3.6 available.
Leeds also look underrated away at Fulham, given a 35% chance by our model against just 26% by the bookmakers, making anything over 3.9 worth considering.
Elsewhere, the big clubs — Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal — all look overpriced, so best avoided this weekend.
Weekend Preview 11 September: Where is the Value?
Championship and Lower Leagues
The Championship offers stronger opportunities. Portsmouth away at Southampton in the South Coast derby is one to watch: we give Portsmouth a 35% chance versus just 22% in the market, with odds of 4.8 available.
Ipswich Town, however, look overpriced at home to Sheffield United. Our model has United at 34% compared with 24% by the bookies, making anything above 4.0 good value.
In League One, Exeter at home to Port Vale stand out, rated at 51% compared with the market’s 35%. Odds of 2.96 are out there. Bromley away at Oldham also carry value, with a 48% chance versus 36% in the market.
Value Abroad
Beyond England, the opportunities widen. In Brazil’s Serie B, Amazonas away at CRB are vastly undervalued, 55% in our model versus just 18% by bookmakers. Anything above 2.3 represents value, and odds of 5.8 are available.
In Greece, Panathinaikos are rated at 58% at home to Volos, against the market’s 40%, with odds of 2.7.
One of the most attractive opportunities is in Spain’s Segunda División where Mirandés play away at Albacete with a 53% chance of victory versus just 30% in the market, priced at 3.35.
Weekend Preview 11 September: Outright Markets
Premier League
In the Premier League, Liverpool’s strong start — capped by a crucial win away at Newcastle — combined with Manchester City’s poor early season form, leaves them clear favourites in our model. We rate Liverpool at a 66% chance of winning the title, compared to just 44% implied by the market. That means anything over 1.8 is value, and odds of 2.5 are currently available. By contrast, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea may look tempting in the bookies’ prices, but our model suggests they are all overvalued.
The Championship
Dropping down to the Championship, Birmingham remain the standout play. We give them a 51% chance of finishing in the top two, compared to just 23% from the market. Anything above 2.3 represents value, and odds of 4.5 are on offer. Ipswich Town, however, look overpriced at 33% — best to avoid.
The Verdict
The Premier League looks well priced this weekend, with few obvious angles outside of West Ham and Leeds. The Championship and lower leagues, however, continue to offer value, while overseas markets — especially in Brazil, Spain and Greece — show some of the clearest gaps between our model and bookmaker odds. For those looking further afield, opportunities are plentiful.
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