Across the Football League, a clear trend emerges — relegated teams are struggling to bounce back, while promoted clubs are largely holding their own
Football4Cast: The Football League – The Fortunes of Promoted & Relegated Clubs
With the international break upon us, we thought it would be interesting to review the relative fortunes of those clubs which were promoted or relegated last year in the Football League. Using our modelling system for each division, are clubs on course to bounce straight back? Will they continue their slide or conversely, keep rising? First we will have a look at each league and see how the promoted / relegated teams are getting on and then briefly see if there are any general trends emerging.
The Championship
The picture in the Championship paints a mixed story for those changing divisions last season. Of the three sides relegated from the Premier League, Leicester City have adapted best, sitting third in the table and carrying a strong 29% chance of automatic promotion according to our model. Ipswich Town, meanwhile, are holding steady in ninth, well placed but needing consistency if they are to mount a serious playoff challenge. Southampton, on the other hand, continue to struggle in transition, languishing in 17th, and with little sign yet of mounting a return to the top flight.
Among the clubs promoted from League One, Birmingham City and Wrexham are finding life tougher than expected in 16th and 18th respectively, while Charlton Athletic, up via the playoffs, are performing the best of the trio in 13th. None of the promoted sides look in immediate danger of relegation, but equally, none are threatening the upper reaches just yet. It’s an adjustment year for all three, with the Championship proving once again to be one of the most competitive leagues in Europe.
League One
League One has already taken shape after the opening months, and it’s been a story of mixed fortunes for the clubs changing divisions. Of the four sides promoted from League Two last season, Bradford City have made the smoothest transition, sitting second with a strong 48% playoff chance and a genuine shot at automatic promotion if form continues. AFC Wimbledon, promoted via the playoffs, are also adapting well in fifth, sitting comfortably inside the top six. Port Vale (16th) and Doncaster Rovers (10th) are finding the going slightly tougher but remain steady in mid-table, safely away from early relegation talk.
For the sides relegated from the Championship, the picture is less rosy. Cardiff City, down from the second tier, are the clear standout of the trio, sitting third and looking like serious promotion contenders with a 42% chance of going straight back up. In contrast, Luton Town (11th) and Plymouth Argyle (15th) have yet to find consistency and are currently mid-table at best, while Rotherham United sit deep in the relegation zone, 22nd, and face an uphill battle to stabilise.
Overall, the early trends show League One to be as competitive as ever, with newcomers performing admirably and former Championship sides struggling to re-establish themselves.
League Two
Of the four clubs relegated from League One, Cambridge United have responded best, sitting eighth and showing signs of stability with a 37% playoff chance. Shrewsbury Town, however, have fallen further, occupying 23rd place and facing a 54% relegation probability, while Bristol Rovers (12th) and Crawley Town (21st) are stuck in mid-table and danger territory respectively.
The clubs promoted from the National League, Barnet and Oldham Athletic, have adapted well to life back in the Football League. Barnet sit 11th and are pushing the playoff conversation with a 17% chance, while Oldham, down in 20th, have shown flashes of resilience but remain too inconsistent to feel safe.
Verdict – The Bounce Back Barrier
Across the Football League, a clear trend emerges — relegated teams are struggling to bounce back, while promoted clubs are largely holding their own. Leicester City and Cardiff are rare exceptions, both mounting credible promotion pushes after dropping down, but most former top-tier sides — like Southampton, Rotherham, and Shrewsbury — have found the adjustment far harder.
By contrast, several of the newly promoted clubs — Charlton, Bradford, Wimbledon, and Barnet — are proving surprisingly competitive in their new surroundings. None are yet challenging for titles, but they’ve shown they belong at this level and are adapting more quickly than expected.
Overall, the data points to a narrowing gap between divisions. Financial disparities still matter, but the Football League’s structure means momentum, organisation, and squad unity are now proving more decisive than parachute payments or past pedigree.
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