The Championship has always thrived on its unpredictability, but after two games of the new season a few themes are already emerging. Bookmakers and data models broadly agree on who the heavyweights are – Birmingham, Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton – but scratch the surface and there are sharp differences. Read on to see F4C’s Championship Predictions…
F4C’s model puts Birmingham out in front with a 50% chance — far higher than the bookmakers’ 24% — suggesting there is significant value in backing them at anything over 2.4
The big news in our Championship Predictions is that we have Birmingham City, fresh from a record-breaking League One campaign, as the most likely side to win promotion. Ipswich’s relegation from the Premier League came with dignity compared with fellow strugglers Leicester and Southampton. The bookmakers expect them to bounce straight back under Kieran McKenna, with experienced additions like Ashley Young helping to stabilise the squad. F4C is less bullish, rating their chances of automatic promotion lower and flagging greater risk.
Both Leicester and Southampton have endured upheaval, losing players and preparing for points deductions or departures. Yet the consensus is that their resources, coaching talent, and depth should still place them in the mix. Neither model nor market is willing to write them off.
Playoff chasers – familiar names, new faces
Coventry, Sheffield United, and Millwall are all rated strongly enough to contest the playoffs again. Coventry, boosted by Frank Lampard’s revival job, remain short of a prolific striker but defensively more secure. Sheffield United, under Rúben Sellés, are in transition but retain a strong spine. Millwall, meanwhile, carry momentum after Alex Neil’s steady work.
Comparison to the bookies – Automatic Promotion
F4C’s model puts Birmingham out in front with a 50% chance — far higher than the bookmakers’ 24% — suggesting there is significant value in backing them at anything over 2.4. Leicester and West Brom follow on 24% apiece, closely aligned with the market. Ipswich are where the biggest split emerges: the model has them at only 17% of automatic promotion. Bookmakers have pushed them into second favourites at 38% — making their short 2.75 price look far too tight. Meanwhile, outsiders such as Middlesbrough, Sheffield United, and Bristol City all sit in the 14–17% range, with their longer odds pointing to potential dark-horse value if they can find early momentum.
..and at the bottom:
At the other end, the differences between our model and the bookmakers are far more striking. Oxford top our relegation predictions at 55%, compared with just 34% in the market. Close behind are Derby, at 52% versus only 18% with the bookies — clear value for those looking for a punt. Wrexham, stepping up from League One with their Hollywood backers, have enjoyed a fairy-tale rise, yet we still give them a 34% chance of going down. The market is far more optimistic at just 10%. The starkest contrast of all comes with Sheffield Wednesday: 39% according to F4C, but an extraordinary 83% in the market, effectively writing them off as near certainties for the drop.
The Verdict
Two games in, the early numbers show clear contrasts. F4C rates Birmingham far higher than the market, sees less in Ipswich than the bookmakers do, and is much more cautious about Wrexham’s survival. For promotion and relegation alike, the model highlights where expectations may be out of line — and where the value lies. It promises to be an exciting season ahead whatever happens.
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