It will be interesting to see over the Christmas period whether Leinster can kick on and climb the table given their strong underlying numbers. Leinster remain the favourites — but the chasing pack is closing in
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 20 December and the return of domestic rugby. After two thrilling weeks of European action, it’s back to league business in the URC and Premiership — and the holiday fixtures promise plenty of drama. In the URC, derby season kicks off with local rivals going head-to-head, while in England, Bath look to extend their lead at the top as Exeter, Leicester, and Northampton try to close the gap.
URC Preview: Christmas Rivalries Return
We have a return to domestic action after a two-week hiatus for European rugby, which provided plenty of excitement, and a great start to the competition. The European Cup will return for another couple of rounds of matches on the weekends of 8 January and the following weekend.
For now, and over the Christmas period, we return to local action. In the URC, there’s a great tradition of keeping players close to home, so over the next couple of weekends, where possible, everyone faces their local rivals — and this weekend we have some tantalising prospects ahead.
As it stands in the URC, the Stormers are in first place, unbeaten after six games. Cardiff are a bit of a surprise package in second, just two points back after winning five of six. Munster are one point behind after an excellent start, with Ulster a couple of points further back having played a game less. Cardiff, flying high in second place, are fifth overall having won four and lost two, while pre-season favourites Leinster are sixth, batting .500 as they say in baseball, with three wins and three losses — slowly recovering after a slow start.
This weekend sees Cardiff looking to extend their good record against basement club Scarlets. Leinster are at home to Ulster, two places above them in the table, but Leinster are strong favourites for victory. The Stormers should be comfortable at home to the Lions with an 87% chance of success. Benetton should beat Zebre in the battle of Italy as 12th take on 11th.
In Glasgow, the home side — fresh from a splendid European Cup win over Toulouse — should have too much for Scottish rivals Edinburgh. Fourteenth take on eighth as the Sharks host the Bulls, and this is a match that could go either way, the Bulls having a slight edge but it’s too tight to call. Ospreys face Munster as 13th meet 3rd, and while Munster are slight favourites, the margin is narrow — a reminder of how strong home advantage can be in this competition. The weekend’s action concludes with Dragons hosting Connacht, but even with home advantage, it’s hard to see Dragons getting a result.
While the table is starting to take shape, six games in might not yet tell the full story. Leinster remain favourites to win the league with a 33% chance of success, with the Stormers their closest challengers at 23%. Munster sit third at 15%, and Glasgow follow at 10%. It will be interesting to see over the holiday period whether Leinster can kick on and climb the table given their strong underlying numbers. Leinster remain the favourites — but the chasing pack is closing in.
The Prem Preview
There’s no such need for localising fixtures in the Premiership. Last year’s champions, Bath, are in fine form once again, topping the table with five wins from six. They head to Newcastle this weekend and are heavy favourites, with the hosts rooted to the bottom of the table. Newcastle’s big-money investment from Red Bull hasn’t had time to take effect yet, though rumours of major signings in the pipeline are welcome news for the fans.
Exeter and Northampton sit second and third in the table, level on points. Exeter travel to Saracens in what looks the game of the weekend. Saracens lost at home to Bath in their last league fixture before the European break, and during that break had a mixed set of results — hammering Clermont Auvergne at home before losing narrowly to the Sharks away. Exeter, led by Wallaby star Len Ikitau, have been flying and are playing with real confidence, though Saracens are still favourites to edge it.
Northampton are at home to Sale and are favoured to take the win. They come into this off an excellent European campaign so far, with back-to-back victories — winning away at Pau, no small feat, and thrashing the Bulls at home. Sale, meanwhile, have endured a poor start to the season. They lost narrowly to Exeter at home before the European break, then fell at home again to Glasgow but recovered with a win away in France. Pre-season favourites to challenge Bath, Sale have failed to deliver and now look set for a mid-table finish, likely around seventh.
Bristol travel to Harlequins in another intriguing clash. Harlequins sit eighth and have struggled in the league, though they impressed in Europe, pushing Leinster close before hammering Bayonne at home. Bristol, sixth in the table, have been inconsistent but come into this with momentum — winning away at Scarlets and thrashing Pau at home in Europe, following a strong domestic win over Northampton. They’ll fancy their chances at the Stoop.
Our model still has Leicester as the likeliest team to challenge Bath, though at just 9% compared to Bath’s 69%. Leicester are comfortable favourites to beat Gloucester on Friday night, with Gloucester languishing in ninth.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip This Weekend
Now we’re back to domestic action we are back to identifying value all around the world. Here are a couple of the best picks we have identified.
As always we have identified many price mismatches further afield so make sure to sign up to get all the info: sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
Other News
We have launched Chat With the Algorithm on our website. It’s very useful. Getting involved with all the latest technological advancements is de riguer for a cutting edge sports analysis company. However, we are not just jumping on the AI bandwagon for the sake of it. This tool is not the algorithm per se. That runs merrily away in the background. It is a useful tool for pulling up all kinds of info that we have stored away which can help you make informed decisions. From asking for the last 5 results between two sides, to who’s going to win the Top 14, the little robot can answer them all giving you access to relevant information in a flash. Try it out on the website: https://sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast/
