With no one else seemingly interested in challenging Arsenal, are Aston Villa sneaking into the picture?
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 5 December 2025
The Premier League Review
It’s been a chaotic stretch in the Premier League, with two rounds of fixtures packed into less than a week — and the main takeaway is simple: no one seems willing to challenge Arsenal for the title.
Last weekend, Brentford beat Burnley 3–1, Manchester City scraped past Leeds 3–2 after throwing away a two-goal lead, and Sunderland edged Bournemouth 3–2. Newcastle thrashed Everton 4–1 away, Tottenham slumped to a 2–1 home defeat against Fulham, while Crystal Palace lost 2–1 to Manchester United. Liverpool steadied slightly with a 2–0 win at West Ham after a torrid run, Aston Villa beat Wolves 1–0, and Brighton comfortably won 2–0 away at Nottingham Forest. On Sunday, Chelsea — despite being down to ten men — were the better side in a 1–1 draw with Arsenal, raising the question of whether Chelsea might actually be emerging as surprise contenders.
Then came midweek chaos. Bournemouth lost 1–0 at home to Everton, City won a wild 5–4 thriller over Fulham that only reinforced doubts about their defensive frailty, and Newcastle once again let victory slip, conceding a late equaliser in a 2–2 draw with Tottenham. Arsenal returned to winning ways with a composed 2–0 over Brentford, while Aston Villa’s remarkable form continued in a 4–3 win at Brighton. Elsewhere, Burnley fell 1–0 to Crystal Palace, Wolves lost 1–0 at home to Forest, and Chelsea’s title talk evaporated with a 3–1 loss to West Ham. Liverpool, meanwhile, stumbled again with a 1–1 draw against Sunderland.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Aston Villa v Arsenal
This weekend’s Premier League action kicks off with an early showdown that, on paper, looks like a clash between title challengers. Aston Villa host Arsenal and could separate the gap between them to just 3 points with victory. Does that mean that Aston Villa are firmly in the title race now? Under Emery, they have been excellent, and have put together a great run of form. This is all after very early season pressure after a series of indifferent results. So, can they do it? Are Arsenal capable of being caught? The short answer is No.
After 10,000 simulations, Arsenal remain untouchable and challengers are falling away. Arsenal hold a 72% chance of winning the title according to the model. Manchester City sit at 23%, with Liverpool now down to a barely perceptible 3.3%. Chelsea and Aston Villa ar ethe best outside of these big three, but each are still around 1.2%. One time in 100 Aston Villa could win the title, so never say never, despite our short answer above.
Other Fixtures
Elsewhere, Newcastle should enjoy a straightforward afternoon at home to Burnley, while Manchester City host an in-form Sunderland side but are still overwhelming favourites to take all three points. Everton face Nottingham Forest, holding a narrow 46% edge, while Bournemouth’s home meeting with Chelsea looks much harder to call — both sides equally capable of self-destruction on their day.
Tottenham’s match against Brentford also feels delicately balanced. Spurs’ draw at Newcastle last time out will have boosted confidence, but their form remains poor. Thomas Frank is under serious pressure. Leeds, meanwhile, face another brutal test as they host Liverpool — and given their recent performances against top sides, an upset isn’t out of the question, especially with Liverpool struggling for rhythm. Brighton are expected to beat West Ham comfortably at home, Fulham’s meeting with Crystal Palace could go either way, and the Sunday 4:30 fixture — a surprisingly drab choice for the primetime slot — doesn’t promise much excitement. Finally, on Monday night, Wolves host Manchester United in what could generously be described as a battle of two struggling sides. United should have just enough to edge it, but with both teams wildly unpredictable, nothing is guaranteed.
Betting Value – Outright Markets
In the outright Premier League markets, there’s very little left to play for — at least according to both the numbers and the bookmakers. Arsenal are so dominant that you’d almost expect the bookies to start paying out already, even though we’re not yet halfway through the season. Our model gives them a 78% chance of winning the title, translating to fair odds of 1.5, and there’s only fractional value to be found — you might squeeze 1.51 in some markets, but it’s marginal.
Manchester City are still second favourites, but our model gives them 18%, compared with the bookies’ 24%, suggesting they’re slightly overvalued and best avoided. Liverpool are even less appealing at just 2% versus 4% from the bookmakers, while Chelsea’s title chances are negligible. Aston Villa remain the only other team offering even a hint of value — we give them close to 2% compared with the bookies’ 1%, meaning anything above 56.5 would technically be value, though 255 is currently available in places. Still, it’s very much a lottery ticket rather than a realistic punt.
As for this weekend’s fixtures, the markets are generally well-aligned with the model. No glaring mispricings stand out, suggesting it’s one of those rounds where discipline matters more than temptation — and where patience might be the smartest bet of all.
Other Major Leagues
In Spain, Barcelona look slightly underpriced for the La Liga title. Our model gives them a 48% chance of success compared with the bookmakers’ 43%, translating to fair odds of 2.5 with 2.69 available — a small but meaningful margin for value hunters.
Over in Italy, Inter Milan appear significantly overpriced. The model puts them at 38% compared to the bookmakers’ inflated 47%, suggesting their dominance in the market doesn’t quite reflect reality. Meanwhile, Napoli offer marginal value, rated 29% by our data versus 24% with the bookies — not a huge edge, but one to keep an eye on as their form stabilises.
In Scotland, the best value in any major league right now lies north of the border. After a couple of weeks of uncertainty and a very brief Hearts’ title push, Celtic have a commanding 95% chance of retaining the title, compared to just 75% according to the bookies — a major discrepancy. At the other end, Hearts’ true probability sits closer to 2%, well below the 18% being offered, making them one of the most overvalued picks anywhere in Europe.
Best Value This Weekend
As usual, there is plenty of value to be had outside the Premier League. Make sure you sign up for all the opportunities we identify. Here are just a small selection of all the unbelievable value we have identified.
Premium Members – Bet Grading
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, and plenty of picks identified to grow your betting pot, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
