For the first time this season, there is value betting on Arsenal to win the title. The Bookies have gone cold on Arsenal and have slashed their odds to just 66%, whilst F4C still has Arsenal at 77%
Arsenal bounce back but City keep up the pressure
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for Friday 27 February.
After a couple of shocking results, including letting a two goal lead slip against Wolves, tongues were starting to wag. Arsenal had seen their lead cut to five points and, come kick off on Sunday afternoon, that lead had been reduced to just two points as City had overcome a tough Newcastle side on Saturday evening. With a visit to City still to come, had the tide turned?
Luckily, Arsenal had the balm of facing Tottenham Hotspur, who are dreadful and in real danger of falling out of the Premier League. Being a North London derby helped carry Tottenham for the first half hour, but Arsenal were then able to calmly assert their dominance and ran out easy 4–1 winners.
So we are back to where we started. Arsenal have a five point lead but City have a game in hand. The problem for Arsenal is that in a season when City have been a shadow of their usual conquering selves, and Liverpool nowhere, this was their chance to march towards the title. And for much of the season, that was the case. However, at the sticky end, it has all been going a bit pear shaped.
Their title chances are still high, as we suggested when everyone was losing their heads last weekend, but at 77% they are edging down. Man City again kick off earlier on Saturday, away at Leeds, while Arsenal are at home to Chelsea. With Leeds in decent form, it is hard to say who has the tougher fixture, but the algorithm has City at 58% to win and Arsenal at 61%, suggesting a slight advantage for Arsenal.
Whatever happens, it promises to be gripping until the end of the season. Something we did not expect to be saying for long stretches of this campaign.
What the Bookies Think
For the first time this season, there is value betting on Arsenal to win the title. The Bookies have gone cold on Arsenal and have slashed their odds to just 66% chance of victory, whilst F4C has them at 77%. Look for value at anything above 1.6 and steer clear of Man City who we suggest are overvalued.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
Wolves vs Aston Villa
Wolves are bottom of the table with 10 points from 28 matches and just one win all season. Aston Villa are third with 51 points and remain firmly in the top four race. Villa are clear favourites in the Brummie derby.
Burnley vs Brentford
Burnley sit 19th on 19 points and are deep in relegation trouble. Brentford are seventh with 40 points and still within reach of the European places. Brentford are rated at 45% to win, with Burnley at 28%, suggesting a competitive but away leaning fixture.
Newcastle vs Everton
Newcastle are 11th on 36 points, while Everton are ninth on 37. Only one point separates the sides in mid table. Newcastle will be buoyed with Champions League qualification to the last 16 but need to pick up their league form.
Liverpool vs West Ham
Liverpool are sixth on 45 points, level with Chelsea and just outside the top four. West Ham are 18th with 25 points and in the relegation zone. Liverpool are strong favourites at 71%, with West Ham given just a 13% chance of an upset, suggesting more pain for Nuno’s hammers.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Bournemouth are eighth with 38 points. Sunderland are 12th on 36 points, only two behind. Bournemouth are favoured at 55%, with Sunderland at 20%, indicating an advantage for the home side in what is otherwise a tight mid table contest.
Leeds United vs Manchester City
Leeds are 15th with 31 points and not yet clear of danger. City are second on 56 points, five behind Arsenal with a game in hand. City are given a 58% chance away from home, compared to 20% for Leeds. Expect Man City to keep up the pressure on Arsenal.
Arsenal vs Chelsea
A big game for the Gunners. Win and it will put to bed jitters and talk of bottling the league, Anything else and City will have the advantage.
Fulham vs Tottenham
Fulham are 10th with 37 points and are having a great season. Tottenham are in real danger of being dragged into the relegation places and have a 13% chance of going down. Expect Fulham to make it more uncomfortable for Igor Tudor.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
Vitor Perreira was livid that Forest lost against Liverpool as they were undone in the 97th minute. That improvement in performance will give them confidence to get something away at Brighton.
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Manchester United are on course for a great finish and possible Champions League qualification. Crystal Palace have having a bit of a shocker, but managed to get a 1-0 victory last time out against Wolves. Expect Man United to get the win.
Scotland (because it is very exciting)
Hearts are increasing their chances of ending the duopoly for the first time in 40 years, as they move up to a 49% chance of taking the title, with Celtic falling back following a shock 2–1 defeat to Hibernian. Basement club Livingston also held Rangers to a draw, while Hearts beat Falkirk 1–0.
Hearts face Aberdeen at home in what will be a challenging match, but they are favourites and will be hopeful of picking up all three points. Meanwhile, it is the Old Firm derby as Rangers host Celtic. Assuming Hearts win, they could stretch their lead to nine points over Celtic if Celtic were to lose at Ibrox, a distinct possibility.
Top Tip of the Weekend
Another great pick over in Chile. Cobresal are undervalued at home to La Serena.
Premium Members – Bet Grading
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