Celtic will almost certainly be fine, and they’ll probably win the league…[But] for the first time in years, Hearts do have a valid reason for a little bit of hope.
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 19 December 2025
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for 19 December. We’re heading into the best stretch of the Premier League season — the festive fixture pile-up. Matches are coming thick and fast in a chaotic, brilliant period that leaves every foreign manager utterly baffled and complaining about the lack of a winter break.
We’ll preview all of this weekend’s Premier League action and take a look at a potential title race brewing in Italy — but first, something is stirring north of the border in Scotland…
Scottish Premiership – Celtic in Meltdown and Hearts to win the League?
All season long, Celtic looked set to cruise to yet another Scottish Premiership title. Having won 13 of the last 14 iterations, and with Brendan Rodgers back in charge, everything appeared under control. Our model had them at around an 80% chance of winning the league, perfectly in line with the bookmakers — business as usual in Glasgow.
Then came the chaos. Hearts, not Rangers, were the early surprise package, surging to the top of the table with sharp, disciplined performances. Suddenly, a title race was being whispered about. But before Hearts could fully capitalise, Brendan Rodgers resigned, leaving Celtic rudderless. The team floundered, results dipped, and panic began to creep in. Enter Martin O’Neill — back in a temporary capacity — who promptly steadied the ship, winning seven of his first eight games and dragging Celtic back to the top, level on points.
Then, in a twist that has since unravelled everything, Celtic appointed Wilfried Nancy — a manager with an excellent MLS record — and almost immediately fell apart. Four defeats in his first four games, senior executives walking out, and furious fans calling for his head. The air of inevitability around another Celtic title has evaporated almost overnight.
For Hearts, meanwhile, belief is building. They haven’t been top at Christmas in 34 years, but they’re back in the conversation. As Celtic wobble, the noise around Tynecastle grows louder: could this finally be the season?
Season Predictions
So, are Celtic actually in trouble? Statistically, not quite yet — but it’s closer than it has been in years. On 5 December, when O’Neill had just restored order, our model gave Celtic a staggering 95% chance of winning the title — meaning that in 10,000 season simulations, they came out on top 9,500 times. Today, that figure has dropped to 70%. Hearts, by contrast, are up to 18%, or 1,800 simulated title wins. So, in a nutshell, whilst Celtic have dropped, they do not need to be seriously worried quite yet.
How do we come to our conclusions you may think? Well, we have (rather accurate) predictions for each match. For example, this weekend, Celtic have a 71% chance of winning at home to Aberdeen. So, our algorithm simulates a season with our predictions for every match, which naturally change depending on the previous results (it’s a long and painful process unless you are a robot with no feelings or sense of boredom and very good at maths), and then it does it 10,000 times.
That work is what powers all of our analysis — and it’s what allows us to spot when the bookies have got it wrong. Odds often shift based on punter behaviour, which tends to be emotional and reactionary. That’s where value emerges — and that’s exactly what’s happening with Celtic. The bookies, likely influenced by the surge of bets on Hearts, now have Celtic priced at just a 54% chance of winning the title. Our model puts them much higher at 70%. That’s quite a big discrepancy, meaning odds of 1.7+ represent solid value — and one can find 1.95 available in some markets places.
In conclusion: Celtic will almost certainly be fine, and they’ll probably win the league. But 70% isn’t 95%. For the first time in years, Hearts do have a valid reason for a little bit of hope.
Premier League
This Weekend’s Fixtures
This weekend’s Premier League fixtures feature several tightly balanced contests. Newcastle host Chelsea in what looks too close to call, while Brighton are expected to beat Sunderland comfortably at home. Bournemouth are slight favourites against Burnley, and Manchester City should secure a routine victory over West Ham. Wolves face Brentford in a game that could go either way, and Liverpool travel to Tottenham, where they hold a narrow edge. Leeds take on Crystal Palace in another evenly matched encounter, while Arsenal are favoured to win away at Everton. Aston Villa, in fine form, are strong favourites against an inconsistent Manchester United, and Fulham versus Nottingham Forest rounds off the weekend with another unpredictable matchup.
Premier League Value
As usual, the Premier League market is broadly accurate — but there’s a standout opportunity this weekend. Aston Villa are seriously undervalued. Unai Emery’s side are flying right now, while Manchester United remain wildly inconsistent. Our model gives Villa a 60% chance of victory compared to the bookies’ 48%. That’s a clear edge — look for value above 1.99, and with 2.12 available, this one stands out as the weekend’s best bet.
Serie A
A real ding-dong is developing in Italy. Just three points separate Inter Milan and Roma in fourth, while AC Milan — rejuvenated and resurgent — are taking the fight to their city rivals. Reigning champions Napoli, despite battling a mounting injury crisis, are still hanging on in contention. However, the algorithm sees Inter as clear favourites, giving them a commanding 57% chance of lifting the title. Between them, Napoli and AC Milan account for around 40%, meaning the chase is very much alive — but Roma, despite their strong position, are unlikely to mount a serious challenge.
Best Value This Weekend
As usual, there is plenty of value to be had outside the Premier League. Make sure you sign up for all the opportunities we identify. Here are just a small selection of all the unbelievable value we have identified.
Premium Members – Bet Grading
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, and plenty of picks identified to grow your betting pot, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
