The opening week delivered some genuine surprises and bigger-than-predicted scores. Could this year’s tournament just be a little more open than expected?
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 12 December and a new weekend of European rugby. After a thrilling first round of Champions Cup action, we head straight into Round Two — and there’s already plenty to unpack. The opening week delivered some genuine surprises and bigger-than-predicted scores. Could this year’s tournament just be a little more open than expected?
European Champions Cup – What Happened in Round One
We start our Weekend Preview 12 December rounding up what happened last weekend. It kicked off with Glasgow surprising Sale and hanging on for a vital 26-21 away win. Edinburgh then carried on the theme of strong Scottish performances by producing one of the standout results: beating Toulon 33–20 in Scotland (no surprise to regular readers as we picked this last week). Gloucester comfortably dispatched Castres 34–14, while Toulouse underlined their title credentials with a 56–19 demolition of Scarlets. Northampton beat Pau 35–27, and Bath delivered perhaps the most impressive result of all, thrashing Munster 40–14 at home, a whopping 22 more points than expected.
Elsewhere, Bristol edged a one-point win over Scarlets 17–16, which was a turn up for the books. La Rochelle overpowered Leicester 39–20, and Leinster, predictably, cruised past Harlequins 45–28. Bordeaux stunned the Bulls away with a 46–33 win, showing they may be the real deal again, while Saracens hammered Clermont 47–10 in a statement performance. The Stormers also picked up a big away win at Bayonne.
Champions Cup – Round Two
This weekend, several heavyweight clashes could reshape the landscape again. Leinster travel to Leicester – our model gives Leinster a 70% chance of taking the points. La Rochelle face a tricky away trip to the Stormers, a fixture that could go either way. Clermont should steady the ship at home to Sale, while Saracens face a potential banana skin away at the Sharks, where the English side’s power should just about see them through.
Munster will aim to bounce back at home to Gloucester, and they should have too much. Bordeaux host Scarlets, and that should be a comfortable home win. Glasgow host Toulouse — our model predicts a Toulouse victory.
Elsewhere, Castres v Edinburgh looks finely balanced, with Edinburgh slight favourites and looking to do a most un-Edinburgh thing – follow up a statement victory with a performance against lesser opposition. Harlequins should get back on track at home to Bayonne, and Northampton are expected to continue their good run against the Bulls. Finally, Toulon v Bath and Bristol v Pau both promise tight contests, but our data edges toward Toulon and Bristol respectively. If Bath were to win against Toulon, it might force people to take them seriously in Europe this year.
How Have the Chances Changed?
After Round One, the top seeds remain the same: Toulouse and Leinster. Both face tricky away fixtures this week but they should top their groups. Bordeaux’s result last weekend has slightly increased their chances of retaining their crown from 6 to 9%. La Rochelle, Saracens, and Northampton backed up their status as chief challengers. The real story, though, might be Bath and Edinburgh — sides that entered the tournament as dark horses but now look capable of shaking up the knockout seedings. Both have just under a 50% chance of reaching the quarter finals, but as they are in the same group, it will probably only be one of them. However, that group of Munster, Toulon, Bath and Edinburgh looks like a cracker.
The Betting Outlook
At the top of the market, the value still lies squarely with Toulouse. Just as last week and despite opening-round dominance, they remain longer than they should be — our model implies fair odds of around 3.0–3.1, yet 3.5 is still widely available.. Leinster are correctly priced, and everything beneath them remains overvalued, particularly Bordeaux and Bath, whose prices don’t reflect the true difficulty of sustaining their early form through the knockout stages, and the potential draw which should unfold.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip This Weekend
As for individual matches, there is one standout option this weekend: Castres v Edinburgh on Sunday lunchtime. Edinburgh are value at 2.45+ with odds of 2.75 available! Can Edinburgh string two impressive performances together? Any victory away from home is a tough ask in this competition, yet Castres are way down in our model and Edinburgh are on the rise. They have played three times since 2022 with Edinburgh winning every time:
16 Dec 2023, Challenge Cup at Edinburgh (Hive Stadium): Edinburgh won 34–21, beating the model’s expectation by 7 points.
15 Jan 2023, Champions Cup at Castres (Stade Pierre Fabre): Edinburgh won 34–21, an upset as Castres were favoured.
17 Dec 2022, Champions Cup at Edinburgh: Edinburgh won 31–20, matching the model’s predicted margin.
20 Dec 2010, Champions Cup at Edinburgh (Murrayfield): Edinburgh won 24–22, close to the predicted margin.
11 Dec 2010, Champions Cup at Castres: Castres won 21–16, but by fewer points than predicted.
As always we have identified many price mismatches further afield so make sure to sign up to get all the info: sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast.
Other News
We have launched Chat With the Algorithm on our website. It’s very useful. Getting involved with all the latest technological advancements is de riguer for a cutting edge sports analysis company. However, we are not just jumping on the AI bandwagon for the sake of it. This tool is not the algorithm per se. That runs merrily away in the background. It is a useful tool for pulling up all kinds of info that we have stored away which can help you make informed decisions. From asking for the last 5 results between two sides, to who’s going to win the Top 14, the little robot can answer them all giving you access to relevant information in a flash. Try it out on the website: https://sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast/
