Arsenal’s title probability has been slashed from 82% down to 60% and reopened the Premier League race in a matter of weeks: A 22-point swing in a fortnight. That’s not a blip — that’s a full-blown wobble
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 12 December 2025
Premier League Preview – Are Arsenal Choking Already?
For weeks it looked done and dusted. Arsenal, crisp and clinical, were cruising toward their first title in two decades — or so we thought. The bookies were already halfway to paying out, with the Gunners’ title probability soaring as high as 82% by early December.
But of course, this is Arsenal — led by Mikel Arteta. Maybe we all realised, deep down, that they would choke and blow the title. We just didn’t expect it to happen so soon.
Over the past five matches, while opponents stumbled over one another — with Liverpool intent on steering their club straight into the rocks after spending over £300 million on forward talent — this was the moment for Arsenal to drive their advantage home. This was when Arsenal were supposed to prove to everyone that they were different. This was Arsenal 2.0, and after a couple of years of getting close, Arteta’s master plan was finally meant to come to fruition.
And what happened? They fumbled the Premier League like an adolescent coming up against their first hook and eye clasp. Our modelling suggested that they should have won every one of their last five Premier League matches. The reality has been somewhat different and they now only lead the Premier League by two points.
Lost 2–1 away at Aston Villa (Dec 6) Aston Villa: 29% Arsenal: 43%
Won 2–0 vs Brentford (Dec 3) Arsenal: 67% Brentford: 14%
Drew 1–1 at Chelsea (Nov 30) Chelsea: 28% Arsenal: 44%
Won 4–1 vs Tottenham (Nov 23) Arsenal: 73% Tottenham: 12%
Drew 2–2 at Sunderland (Nov 8) Sunderland: 15% Arsenal: 66%
That’s a loss 7 points over 5 games. It began with a 2–2 draw away at Sunderland despite being heavy favourites, followed by a dominant 4–1 win over Tottenham at home. They were expected to beat Chelsea but could only draw 1–1, despite Chelsea being down to 10 men for most of the game. They won 2–0 at home to Brentford as predicted, before last week they lost 2–1 loss to Aston Villa — a game our model rated as close, but still with Arsenal holding the edge. In total, three dropped results from five supposedly “winnable” fixtures have slashed their title probability from 82% down to 60% and reopened the Premier League race in a matter of weeks. A 22-point swing in a fortnight. That’s not a blip — that’s a full-blown wobble.
The good news is that they are still on 60%. Also, their nearest challengers are not what they once were. Liverpool’s demise is obvious, but there are signs of a Man City recovery. And Arsenal will get a respite this weekend as they play Wolves at home, as much as a guaranteed three points as there is in the Premier League.
And yet, out of the smoke, Aston Villa have quietly emerged. Unai Emery’s side have been nothing short of electric, toppling Arsenal in dramatic fashion and putting together one of the most impressive runs of any team in Europe. Their reward? A 6% shot at the title. Sorry, Villa fans — you’re in the conversation, but you’re not winning it.
The reality? Manchester City are coming. Pep’s machine may have stuttered, but the model now gives them a 33% chance — up significantly from a few weeks ago — and the momentum is unmistakable. At odds of 4.43, that’s where the value lies. City have flaws, sure, but Arsenal’s collapse has opened the door. And with Haaland in the mood, he might just decide its time Man City took back their title.
So, is the title race back on? You bet.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Chelsea will be looking to get back into the top four at home to Everton and are favoured (53%) for the victory, though Everton’s resilience could make it closer than expected. Liverpool are heavy favourites (57%) at Anfield against Brighton, whose defensive lapses away from home should cost them. Burnley host Fulham in what looks one of the most balanced fixtures of the weekend, with 39% and 33% win probabilities respectively — it really could go either way. Arsenal, fresh off their defeat to Aston Villa, are overwhelming favourites (77%) to bounce back against bottom-side Wolves.
Aston Villa head to West Ham full of momentum after that late win, and with 57% chances of success, they look the stronger side. Manchester City (49%) travel to Crystal Palace in what could be a tricky afternoon, but their quality should tell in the end. Nottingham Forest (44%) look a strong home pick against Tottenham (29%). Brentford are narrow favourites (44%) at home to Leeds, a game that promises goals and energy. And on Monday night, Manchester United (45%) face Bournemouth (28%) at Old Trafford, with United expected to edge it but confidence limited.
The Big Game Preview – Sunderland v Newcastle
The standout clash this weekend is the Tyne–Wear Derby — Sunderland vs Newcastle — one of English football’s most emotionally charged fixtures.
Sunderland have been this season’s surprise package, punching above their weight for months, but after a run of wobbles, they’ve slipped from 4th down to 9th. Their home form has kept them in the conversation, though — they’ve taken points off Arsenal and Bournemouth at the Stadium of Light and remain one of the league’s most spirited sides.
Newcastle, on the other hand, look like a team rediscovering their rhythm. They’re unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches and holding their own in Europe, grinding out a 2–2 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen in midweek. The issue? They just can’t hold a lead. Newcastle have dropped 11 points from winning positions this season, the worst record in the division — and if they’d seen those games out, they’d be level with Arsenal at the top.
History doesn’t favour the visitors at this ground. The last five Tyne–Wear clashes at the Stadium of Light make grim reading for the Magpies: a 3–0 win in 2023/24 (FA Cup), but before that, four winless visits — defeats in 2015/16 (0–3), 2014/15 (0–1), 2013/14 (1–2), and a 1–1 draw in 2012/13.
The model gives Newcastle a 47% chance of victory versus Sunderland’s 26%, reflecting a historical statistical gulf in quality — but with Sunderland’s energy, Newcastle’s soft underbelly, and the raw chaos this rivalry always brings, the numbers might not tell the whole story. This one’s primed for drama.
From a betting point of view, this is one to enjoy without a bet. There’s no value in the market with the pricing pretty accurate.
Betting Value – Premier League
This week there are a couple more options than usual offering value in the Premier League, though the margins remain slim. First, Burnley at home to Fulham look undervalued despite being in the relegation zone. They have a 38% chance of victory compared with just 26% given by the bookies, meaning value at 3.01+, with odds of 4.14 available.
Next, Aston Villa away to West Ham represent solid value once again. The model gives Villa a 56% chance of winning compared with 50% from the bookies, implying value above 2.02, with odds of 2.08 currently available.
Finally, Nottingham Forest at home to Tottenham also stands out as a smart option. Forest have a 43% chance of victory against Spurs’ 29%, yet bookies only price them at 39%. Fair value is 2.61+, and 2.67 is out there — another small but worthwhile edge.
Other Major Leagues
It’s all kind of obvious who’s going to win in Spain and Germany – Barcelona and Bayern Munich respectively. However, in Italy, a brilliant title race is breaking out between Inter Milan, Napoli, AC Milan and possibly Roma. AC Milan have been in the doldrums for so long it is a nice surprise to see them up there in the fight, and they went top on Monday night with a 3-2 away victory at Torino. This weekend, Inter, Napoli and AC Milan expect to win their matches, and Roma face Como at home in a test of their credentials to crash the party.
Over in France, after 15 games, shockingly, Paris Saint–Germain are not on top. Instead, Lens are in first place with PSG in second and Marseille in third.
However, the algorithm is still confident that PSG will turn on the afterburners at some stage and blow away the opposition, giving them an 86% chance of league victory.
Best Value This Weekend
As usual, there is plenty of value to be had outside the Premier League. Make sure you sign up for all the opportunities we identify. Here are just a small selection of all the unbelievable value we have identified.
Premium Members – Bet Grading
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