Welcome to the Weekend Preview 17 April. After the brilliant quarter finals of the European Cup last weekend, we return to domestic action across the board. Last Friday we got a potential Prem Final Preview as Bath and Northampton delivered a belter. A debatable yellow card to Henry Pollock finally being the difference as Bath completed an excellent comeback to make the semi-finals. Bordeaux beat fellow French heavyweights, Toulouse, whilst Leinster easily beat Sale as predicted, and Toulon upset Glasgow away from home as Glasgow failed to deliver in a disappointing performance.
We have a bit of a break before the semi-finals at the beginning of May as we return to domestic action in the Prem, URC and beyond. We also have the Women’s Six Nations which kicked off last weekend to get stuck into.
The Champions Cup Quarter-Finals Review
Looking back at the European Champions Cup quarter-final action from last weekend, it was quite a good weekend for the algorithm, as we got three out of the four matches correct. Bath beat Northampton as predicted, although it was closer than expected. Leinster comfortably beat Sale and Bordeaux beat Toulouse, although what we thought was almost a coin toss ended up being far more one-sided, with Bordeaux winning by 15 points more than expected. The big surprise was Toulon upsetting Glasgow away from home, with Toulon winning by three, whereas we had predicted a Glasgow victory. All in all, a fairly decent weekend. As we said in our preview, there was not much value in the market, but there was potential value on Bordeaux, so hopefully you found a bookie offering odds above the value threshold and were able to get on that one.
The Prem Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
Looking at the standings after 12 rounds and with six games to go before the playoffs, Northampton lead the way just one point clear of Bath. Behind them Leicester sit five points back with Exeter just one point behind them. Those four look very likely to make up the top four come the end of the regular season. Behind them, Bristol and Saracens are in the mix, and then Sale a long way back in what has been a fairly miserable season for them. Gloucester and Harlequins sit in eighth and ninth in what has been a really disappointing season for them both, and Newcastle prop up the table.
Looking at the overall chances of winning the Premiership, Bath lead the way at 46% and Northampton at 33%, and as we saw last Friday they do appear to be on a different level to everyone else in the country. If they do meet in the final again it promises to be a real treat. Leicester are the outsiders among the frontrunners with a 14% chance, and beyond that nobody else gives much cause for excitement, although Bristol are the one team outside the current top four with a chance of sneaking into the Playoffs, sitting at 17%, potentially at Exeter’s expense.
Having a look at the markets, there isn’t much value on an outright winner. It seems to be fairly evenly priced. One note of warning is to avoid backing Bath, as those odds are 7% greater than what the model suggests so no value there at all. Northampton might be one to look out for, currently a 2% difference between the model and the bookies which is marginal, but that might open up over the next couple of weekends. And as we saw last weekend, they have enough in them to beat this Bath team on another day.
The Prem Weekend Predictions
This weekend’s action kicks off on Friday night at Ashton Gate, with Bristol hosting Gloucester. We predict a fairly comfortable home win for Bristol, with Gloucester struggling in eighth place and Bristol needing the victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. Saturday then brings Leicester at home to Newcastle, which looks a comfortable home win for Leicester. The game of the weekend is Exeter hosting Northampton, with Exeter sitting fourth but mindful of Bristol breathing down their necks. They will be keen for the win here and while it could go either way, the model leans slightly towards Exeter, which may surprise some. Bath then take on Harlequins, with a predicted 94% chance of victory for Bath adding further misery to what has been a painful season for Quins. Sale round off the weekend hosting Saracens in a meeting of two mid-table clubs, with Sale in particular in need of a morale-boosting result after a fairly poor campaign, and a tame defeat in the Champions Cup quarter-final to Leinster.
Game of the Weekend: Exeter v Northampton
Value on Exeter in the big game on Saturday. Northampton are slightly overpriced according to the model, and so there is value on Exeter on anything above 1.86 and you can get 2.00 in the market.
The URC Weekend Preview
Standings & Chances
Glasgow sit top of the pile, with the Stormers in second, Ulster in third and Leinster in fourth, having picked up considerably after a fairly poor start by their standards. The Lions are fifth, and then it drops into mid-table with Cardiff, Munster and the Bulls, before the rest falling away considerably towards the lower end of the table. Looking at the overall chances of victory, it is perhaps surprising that Glasgow are not the outright favourites despite leading the standings. Leinster retain the highest chance of overall victory, something we identified at the very beginning of the season and have never wavered on despite their slow start. They have never stopped being our top pick. Glasgow are our next best at 20%, more than assured of a top four finish but not quite the model’s preferred pick for the title. Behind them the Stormers sit at 15%, and the Bulls, despite sitting eighth in the table, carry an 11% chance of overall success. That may appear surprising at first glance, but the model takes into account likely seedings and playoff draws, and given Leinster’s historic performance in this competition, their position at the top of the title odds is well founded.
URC Weekend Predictions
This weekend sees a host of interesting matchups, beginning with Edinburgh heavily favoured to beat Zebre at home. On Friday evening, an all-Ireland affair sees Ulster host Leinster in what promises to be a very close and tough game. We give Ulster the slight edge here with a predicted scoreline of 25 points to 21 and a 53% chance of victory, but it truly could go either way. Also on Friday, the Bulls head to the Dragons with a 76% chance of success, so leaning fairly comfortably towards a Bulls victory there. Saturday brings the Stormers hosting Connacht with a 70% chance of a home victory, although it should be a close enough game. A great fixture of the weekend then sees the Lions take on Glasgow, with the Lions sitting fifth and Glasgow top of the table. It could go either way, but the model gives a marginal advantage to the Lions. Scarlets host Cardiff in a Welsh derby, and although Scarlets sit well down the table, the model has them shading it, albeit in another match that is too close to call. Benetton host Munster in similarly tight fashion, with Benetton given the slight edge, and the weekend closes with Ospreys at home to the Sharks, two sides separated by one place in the table, with the Ospreys holding a marginal home advantage according to the model.
All in all, it promises to be an excellent weekend in the URC of tight matches, and where most of the good games this weekend will come from.
Women’s 6 Nations Weekend Preview
It should be a round of fairly comfortable victories this weekend in the Women’s Six Nations. England should get some revenge for the defeat of the men with a comfortable victory at Murrayfield. France should have too much for Wales and then Ireland should see off Italy at home, in what should be comfortable but will be the closest game of the three.
Overall Tournament Chances
England lead the way by a country mile in a tournament with little jeopardy, due to England’s superiority. France are the outsiders if England were to slip up.
Super Rugby
Standings & Chances
Hurricanes lead the way at the top of the table followed by the Chiefs. The Hurricanes have won their last 5 in a row and have surged to the top of the table. Last weekend they beat the Blues very comfortably to reinforce their lead at the top. The Blues themselves are in third before the Australian duo of the Brumbies and Reds come in at fourth and fifth. The Reds surprised the Crusaders last weekend picking up the win as the model had the Crusaders as favourites to win by 5. The rest of the bunch are having poor seasons, although there is a slither of hope for the Waratahs on sneaking into the Playoffs, but it is small.
The algo has the Canes as favourite for overall victory with a 40% chance. The Chiefs are the closest challengers at 34% so realistically it is between these two, unless one of the Blues, Brumbies or Reds can really pick it up.
Super Rugby Weekend Predictions
A preview of the final this weekend as the Chiefs host the Hurricanes in the tie of the round. We have the Chiefs just shading this one, but it will be a different story in the Final as the Canes will likely be at home. The rest of the matches should be fairly one sided.
If we have a look at the outright betting market for Super Rugby there is clear value on the Canes. The bookies have the Chiefs as favourites, but we think they are overpriced. We give the Canes a 40% chance compared to the bookies of 33%. Look out for odds above 3.1.
That’s it for this Weekend’s Preview. Plenty of rugby to enjoy, and sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
