Welcome to this weekend’s Rugby4Cast Weekend Preview 3 April. This weekend brings the curtain down on the Champions Cup group stage, and by Sunday evening we will know which teams have secured their quarter final places and, crucially, how they are seeded for the draw. Seeding matters enormously at this stage of the competition, with the higher seeds earning home advantage for the knockout rounds. There is plenty still to play for across the fixtures, and it promises to be a compelling weekend of European rugby.
The Champions Cup Weekend Preview
Current Overall Standings
The Champions Cup Overall Chances
Perhaps the most striking element of the current standings is that Toulouse, despite sitting tenth in the table on 12 points, remain the outright favourites to win the tournament at 27%, with a 90% chance of reaching the quarter finals. It is a reflection of the model’s respect for what they are capable of once the knockout stages arrive, regardless of where they come in the group. Bordeaux lead the table on 20 points and are given a 24% chance of going all the way, with Leinster just behind them on 18 points and carrying a 24% win probability of their own alongside the highest semifinal probability in the competition at 74%. Glasgow, level with Bordeaux on 20 points, are given an 11% chance of winning it, which feels like it may underestimate them slightly given their form. Bath and Saracens are the English clubs most fancied to go deep, with Bath at 35% semifinal probability and Saracens notably at 35% despite their modest points tally, which suggests the model sees their draw as relatively favourable.
The Champions Cup Outright Betting Odds
Looking at the outright market, there is no standout value available at this stage of the competition. Leinster and Bordeaux both sit at a value threshold of 5.3, meaning the odds would need to reach that level before they represent a genuine opportunity, and neither is close to that price in the current market. Toulouse are the most interesting case. Our model has them at 27% while the market is only pricing them at 23%, giving a threshold of 4.8. That gap is not large enough to represent clear value right now, but it is worth monitoring as the knockout stages approach and the market recalibrates around the draw. If Toulouse are handed a difficult looking quarter final on paper, the odds may drift to a point where they become an excellent play. Keep them on your radar.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Friday night gets things underway as Northampton host Castres at Franklin’s Gardens. The Saints are heavy favourites at 87% and a win would consolidate their second place in Pool 4 and secure a top eight seed, guaranteeing home advantage in the Round of 16. Castres are fighting for third place and still have something to play for, but on current form this looks like a comfortable home win.
Saturday carries the bulk of the action. Toulon host the Stormers at Stade Felix Mayol in a fixture that matters greatly to both sides. Toulon are second in Pool 2 on 14 points and a win keeps them there, securing a top eight seed. The Stormers are third in Pool 3 on 14 points and need a result to protect their qualification place ahead of the chasing pack. The model gives Toulon a 76% chance of winning on home soil.
At The Recreation Ground, Bath take on Saracens in one of the standout fixtures of the weekend. Bath lead Pool 2 on 16 points and a win confirms them as pool winners with a top four seed, which would be a considerable prize. Saracens on 10 points are still battling for a top four place in the pool and need to win to keep their hopes alive. The model gives Bath a 74% chance, but with this much at stake for both sides it promises to be a serious contest. Bath thrashed Saracens a couple of weeks ago in the Prem, will Saracens be able to get some revenge?
At Scotstoun, Glasgow host the Bulls in a match that is something of a formality for the Warriors themselves, who have already confirmed top spot in Pool 1 and are simply determining the scale of their advantage over the rest. For the Bulls on 7 points, a win and a bonus point gives them a fighting chance of finishing fourth in the pool ahead of Pau. The model gives Glasgow an 84% chance of winning.
At de Toulouse, Toulouse welcome Bristol knowing that second place in Pool 1 is already theirs but that a strong performance and bonus point win could have a bearing on where they are seeded relative to other second placed clubs. Bristol on 14 points in Pool 4 are in a comfortable third place but will want to finish strongly. The model has Toulouse at 90%, which is about as emphatic a rating as the model produces.
At Twickenham Stoop, Harlequins host Sale in a match with significant implications for both. Harlequins are second in Pool 3 on 15 points and a win strengthens their seeding position considerably. Sale on 11 points are in a genuine three way battle for third and fourth in Pool 1 with Saracens and the Sharks, and need to win to keep themselves in contention. The model gives Harlequins a 78% chance at home.
Sunday brings two fixtures to close out the group stage. Bordeaux host Leicester at Stade Chaban Delmas, with the French side already confirmed as Pool 4 winners on 20 points and seeking to finish with maximum points and the strongest possible seeding. Leicester on 6 points are level with La Rochelle in a fight for fourth place in Pool 3, and a win here is essentially essential for their hopes of qualifying. The model gives Bordeaux 83% and this one may hinge on whether Bordeaux field their strongest side or begin rotating ahead of the knockout rounds.
The final fixture of the group stage sees Leinster welcome Edinburgh to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. Leinster have won all four of their matches and lead Pool 3 on 18 points. They are already through and almost certainly confirmed as pool winners, but the margin of victory could affect their overall seeding relative to Glasgow and Bordeaux. Edinburgh on 10 points are level with Castres in a battle for third and fourth in Pool 2, and a result in Dublin, however unlikely at 92% in favour of Leinster, would go a long way to settling that question.
Super Rugby – Standings and Weekend Predictions
Super Rugby Outright Betting Odds
The standout opportunity in the Super Rugby outright market right now is the Hurricanes. They lead the competition on 25 points from five matches with five wins, and our model has them as the most likely winner at 35%, yet the market is only pricing them at 23%, a gap of 12 percentage points that is considerable by any measure. The value threshold sits at 3.6 and the best available odds are 4.5, meaning the current market price is well above that threshold and the Hurricanes represent genuine value right now. The Blues are also worth a mention, with best odds of 7.0 against a model probability of 20% compared to the market’s 15%, giving a threshold of 6.2 which the current price comfortably clears. However the Hurricanes are the pick of the two. They are top of the table, they are winning matches, and the market is underestimating them by a meaningful margin. This is a value opportunity worth acting on.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip This Weekend
Our top tip this weekend is Glasgow to beat the Bulls at Scotstoun. The model has Glasgow at 84% and the odds market at 75%, giving a threshold price of 1.24 and a best available odds of 1.29, which represents a 4% edge according to our value calculation. The Bulls have struggled away from home throughout this competition, Glasgow are in excellent form at Scotstoun, and this is exactly the type of fixture where the market underestimates home advantage.
Sign up for a free trial to receive all the best analysis and opportunities: Rugby4Cast
