Welcome to the Weekend Preview, 27 March. We all needed a little time to come down from the high of the Six Nations, and last weekend’s domestic action passed by in a blur as Bath destroyed Saracens in a statement win. Now we can take stock of each league, assess the chances, and review if there are any market discrepancies we can take advantage of. It’s a bit of a long one, so get yourself a coffee and prepare for the weekend of rugby.
The Prem Weekend Preview
The Prem Table
Northampton remain top of the table after 11 rounds with 48 points, holding a narrow advantage over Bath on 46 after Bath’s emphatic 62–18 dismantling of Saracens last Friday. Leicester and Exeter remain firmly in the playoff hunt after both picked up wins at the weekend, Leicester edging Bristol by 7 at Welford Road and Exeter seeing off Sale at Sandy Park. Bristol round out the current top five despite the defeat. Saracens, despite a strong points difference, sit sixth and will need a strong run to secure a semifinal spot, with last Friday’s hammering at Bath doing little to help their cause. Below them the gap begins to widen, with Sale, Gloucester, Harlequins and Newcastle struggling to keep pace as the season enters its decisive phase. Gloucester’s upset win at the Stoop was a rare bright spot for that group, but it may prove too little too late.
The Prem Overall Chances
The tournament chances model adds some context to the table picture. Bath lead the outright win probability at 44% and with their playoff percentage on top of that, they have a 98% chance of making the semifinals. Northampton are top of the table but given only a 30% title chance, so the model is not as convinced that in a head to head with Bath, Northampton can come out on top.
Leicester and Exeter are in a similar boat. Leicester sit third on 41 points with a 12% title shot and 62% playoff probability, giving them a 74% chance of making the semifinals. Exeter on 40 points have a small outright win chance and 54% playoff probability, putting them in a similar bracket overall.
Bristol on 37 points have a 10% title chance and 56% playoff probability, so around 66% combined, which looks a touch generous given the gap to the top four.
Saracens are predicted to finish sixth but with only a 6% combined playoff chance. They are running out of road if they want to get into the playoffs.
Below them Sale, Gloucester, Harlequins and Newcastle are essentially playing for Champs Cup or Challenge Cup spots. Sale need a real change of fortune which the model suggests as very unlikely if they are to make the playoffs.
The Prem Outright Betting Odds
The market has Bath as favourites at 52% implied probability against our 44%, making them overvalued by the market with no real value there. Northampton are the more interesting case, with our model at 30% against the market’s 27% implied, a marginal edge that suggests some value. Leicester at 11% implied against our 12% is pretty much the same. Saracens at 10% is a complete waste of money as they realistically have zero chance.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Five fixtures this weekend with plenty at stake at both ends of the table. Exeter kick things off on Friday night at Kingston Park, and the model makes them heavy favourites at 87% with a predicted 22 point margin. Newcastle are bottom and have little to play for, so this looks like a good opportunity for Exeter to bank points before the run in.
Saturday is where the action is. Gloucester host Leicester at Villa Park in Birmingham, an unusual venue but one that should not cause Leicester too many problems. The model gives them a 76% chance and a 12 point predicted margin. Gloucester grabbed a win at the Stoop last weekend but this is a step up in class.
Bristol host Harlequins in Cardiff and the model is as confident as it gets, 88% and a predicted 19 point margin. Harlequins are struggling at the bottom and Bristol should have enough here despite an inconsistent season.
Bath round out the weekend on Sunday at Salford City Stadium. Sale have had a difficult season and Bath arrive in form as 65% favourites with a seven point predicted margin. A routine win here would keep the pressure on Northampton heading into the final rounds.
Game of the Weekend – Saracens v Northampton
The match of the round comes at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday evening. Saracens host league leaders Northampton in what the model calls a near coin flip, 55% Saracens and 43% Northampton with a predicted three point margin. Saracens were well beaten at Bath last Friday and will be looking for a response, while Northampton will want to keep their lead at the top intact.
There’s value in the market on Saracens who are slightly underestimated by the bookies. Look for prices above 1.9.
The URC
The URC Standings
Glasgow sit clear at the top after 13 rounds with 50 points and a points difference of +171, which tells its own story. Stormers are second on 46, also with ten wins, but the gap to Glasgow is beginning to look meaningful. Ulster and Leinster occupy third and fourth on 42 and 41 points respectively, both on eight wins, though Ulster’s superior points difference gives them the edge. Cardiff round out the top five on 39 points, which is a decent position for a side sitting on a negative points difference.
Munster and Lions are locked on 38 points just outside the playoff spots. Bulls sit eighth on 35 points within striking distance of the leading clubs.
Below them Connacht on 35 points are still mathematically in the hunt but the chances bar tells a different story. Ospreys and Sharks are level on 28 points and likely playing for pride and finishing position at this stage.
From Benetton downwards it gets difficult to make a case for anyone. Edinburgh on 22, Scarlets on 20, Dragons on 19 and Zebre propping up the table on 11 with a points difference of minus 187. A long season for the bottom four.
The URC Overall Chances
The chances model throws up a few interesting contrasts with the table. Leinster sit fourth but lead the outright win probability at 33%, ahead of Glasgow on 21% despite Glasgow having a eight point lead at the top. Combined playoff chances have Glasgow on 99% and Stormers on 87% looking the most secure. Leinster are only at 82% combined despite their title favouritism, which reflects that is will be tight coming into the end of the season.
The most striking number is Bulls with a 11% outright win chance from eight place, ahead of several teams above them in the table. Cardiff sit fifth but but the model does not like their chances at all of staying the distance. Ulster, sitting in third in the table, have just a 7% title chance and 47% combined playoff probability, which feels slightly small given their position.
From Ospreys downward the model is essentially writing off any playoff hopes. Ospreys, Edinburgh, Benetton, Scarlets, Dragons and Zebre are all deep into Challenge Cup territory, with the bottom four at 100% Challenge Cup probability. The season is already over for half the league.
URC Outright Betting Odds
In general, there isn’t much value in betting on an outright winner of the URC. Leinster are very overvalued by the market at 50% implied against our 33%, and are one to avoid. Glasgow and Stormers are both marginally overvalued. Bulls, Munster and Ulster are all essentially flat, with the model and market in broad agreement.
The URC Weekend Predictions
Not too many close games expected this weekend, all with fairly healthy points differentials between the sides. Not a weekend for the casual fan one suspects.
The Top 14
Top 14 Standings and Chances
Toulouse are running away with it, fourteen wins from nineteen games and a 71% outright win chance in the model, and at this stage the title looks theirs to lose.
Montpellier, Bordeaux, Pau and Stade Francais are remarkably tight from second to fifth, separated by just three points, and with the model giving all four a similarly modest outright win chance the race for the remaining playoff spots looks wide open.
Clermont sit sixth with eleven wins but the model is not fully convinced by their playoff prospects, and Racing 92 just below them look the most vulnerable of the sides currently in or around the top six despite also having eleven wins to their name.
La Rochelle are on the playoff bubble and Toulon and Lyon just below them are pretty much out of it. From Castres downward the playoff door is nearly shut, and Perpignan and Montauban are already done, with Montauban having won just once all season in what has been a very difficult year for the club.
Super Rugby – Standings and Weekend Predictions
Hurricanes and Blues are level on 20 points at the top, with Brumbies and Reds close behind, making it a tight race at the top of the table at this early stage of the season. Crusaders and Chiefs are a few points off the pace with three wins each. From Waratahs downward the chances bar tells a fairly bleak story, and Moana Pasifika at the bottom with one win and a points difference of minus 142 are having a tough time of it.
Super Rugby Outright Betting Odds
Hurricanes are the standout value play, with our model at 30% against the market’s 23% implied, making them the most undervalued side in the competition. Blues at 15% with the bookies against our 19% also offer a reasonable edge. Brumbies at 13% against our 8% are modestly overvalued. Chiefs are the clearest team to avoid, with the market at 33% against our 25%, a significant overvaluation together with Crusaders at 25% implied against our 11%. Reds at 9% implied against our 7% is marginal and not worth pursuing.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip This Weekend
The top tip of the weekend comes from the Top 14, where Perpignan host Toulon on Saturday afternoon. The model gives Perpignan a 66% win chance against the market’s 44%. Toulon may have won four of the last five meetings and lead the all time head to head heavily, but the model sees this one differently with Toulon’s away form pretty atrocious. At 2.10 with several bookies, Perpignan are the value play of the weekend.
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