Welcome to the 6 Nations Final Round Preview. It’s a three way fight for the title as we head into the final weekend with what some are saying is the best tournament in living memory. For many, this has been a tournament of surprises. They must not have read our articles, as this was exactly* what we predicted. But anyway, for teh first time in living memory, Scotland have a shot at the title. Can they do it? We assess their chances together with those of Ireland and France.
*almost exactly, if not for England being completely hopeless
The Standings So Far…
So heading into the final weekend, France are level on points with Scotland on 16 points, both with three wins and a loss and four bonus points. Ireland, also with three wins and a loss, are two points behind on 14 points. Italy are doing well in fourth, with England in penultimate place and Wales languishing in last place with one solitary bonus point.
What do the bookies think and what will actually happen?
As we mentioned in the introduction, the tournament has played out in many respects as we predicted in our pre-tournament preview. As we head into the final weekend, we predicted that Scotland would have a massive say in who wins the championship. This was because England and France had to go to Murrayfield, whilst Ireland play them at home. Scotland were to become kingmakers in some respects. Neither England nor France could handle the Scots, and so Ireland have a good shot at tournament success if they beat Scotland. Ireland are actually undervalued at the bookies right now.
For France, it is simple: beat England and they probably win the title. If France lose, then the winner of Ireland–Scotland will in all likelihood win the championship.
The surprise of the tournament has been England. They were soaring up the rankings under Borthwick and had real hopes of victory themselves. However, losses to Ireland, Scotland and Italy have brought things crashing to a halt. England’s weakness gives France a stronger chance than previously predicted in a one-off game against England, although the bookies are probably favouring France a little too much.
Scottish hopes are real, but a win away in Ireland looks a bridge too far according to the model. They have just a 19% chance of beating Ireland and a 9% chance of the France–England game going in their favour as well.
Final Round Preview & Predictions
Ireland v Scotland
The first match of Super Saturday could well be the decider. Whoever wins will be 6 Nations champions if France lose to England (unless France get a try bonus point and a losing bonus point and Ireland win without a try bonus point). Ireland are strong favourites to do the job in Dublin with a 79% chance. Five wins in the last five against Scotland puts them in good stead, and we have a predicted winning margin of Ireland +9. All eyes will be on Finn Russell, who has been sublime; together with Blair Kinghorn and co., they have formed a formidable attack. Last weekend’s destruction of France, as they put 50 points on them, was a sight to behold. Ireland will know that if they don’t bring their A game, they could be cut to ribbons. Just a shame it’s the first game of the day really.
Italy v Wales
Italy head to Cardiff threatening to have their best Six Nations ever. They might have got more points in another year, but they have been competitive in every match and beat England for the first time last weekend. They have been a joy to watch, with Limoncello (I know) at centre they have a candidate for player of the tournament. This game should be a good one, and Italy are slight favourites with a predicted margin of +7. They have actually won two of the last games against Wales in Cardiff.
Wales have actually been a lot better than expected, even though they have lost all of their matches. If you dig a little deeper, there are real signs of improvement. In fact, they lost by 18 points fewer than predicted against France, 16 points fewer against Scotland, and lost by 22 points fewer than expected against Ireland. That is actually rather impressive and a clear sign of improvement. Expect this one to be a close game that Italy just edge.
France v England
The big one, the DECIDER… well, that was how it was meant to be when the tournament kicked off. It still is in a way. If France win, they win the tournament, but that was not the idea. England should be heading into this knowing that if they win they win the tournament, but it has catastrophically not played out like that. England have been slow, defensively porous, slow, ponderous, weak, unimaginative, slow, boring, and there is little to indicate that they will improve against France.
We have France with a +9 predicted winning margin and a 72% chance of success. England’s form going into the tournament gives them a probably oversized 22% chance of causing an upset. How will France react after shipping 50 points against Scotland in what was actually a very poor performance? Will they shrug it off? Probably. And France will close out a great tournament celebrating in Paris.
Any Value This Weekend?
Ireland at home to Scotland is a good bet as Ireland are undervalued. Possibly overly enamoured by Scotland’s swashbuckling flair, the bookies and punters are going too heavily on Scotland. Ireland have been undervalued all tournament and continue to be so. Ireland at home is a different kettle of fish.
Italy v Wales is fairly accurately priced. Possible longshot value on England, who started right out at 6.2, but their odds are shortening, so get on now at 4.04+.
SUPER RUGBY 2026
Round 3 Results
Round 4 Predictions
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip For This Weekend
Ireland at home is one of the best picks out there this weekend. Good luck!
NEW FEATURE: Rugby4Cast’s Top Handicap Tip
We have a new feature at the beta testing stage where we identify possible handicap opportunities in the market. Here we have a great example this weekend. We have the Bulls predicted to win by 12, so -1.5 @ 2.2 is a great opportunity.
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