Welcome to the Weekend Preview, 6 March. It’s a defining round in the 6 Nations as we enter the penultimate weekend. Ireland take on Wales at home, whilst France head to Scotland at Saturday lunchtime in a challenging fixture, but one which could win the championship for France.
Then England head to Rome for a potential banana skin in the cliched sense when talking about Italy. Everyone expects England to win, but Italy are much improved and England are on the slide. Could an upset be on the cards?
The Standings So Far…
France are leading the way with three wins from 3 and have maximum points of 15. Scotland are in second place, together with Ireland on a similar record of 2 wins and a defeat. Scotland has the edge with two more bonus points.
England and Italy are tied in fourth and fifth, both only having 5 points. Wales prop up the table being 0 and 3 and only picking up a solitary bonus point.
What do the Bookies Think?‘
Before we go diving off into the individual matches, let’s have a look at what the bookies think overall. The bookies have France as almost guaranteed to win with a 96% win chance. R4C considers it as France being favourites but a reduced 83% chance. Ireland still remains a possible value option as they have a 15% chance but are still underpriced at the bookies, who consider them as having a 5% chance of winning the tournament.
Round 4 Preview & Predictions
Ireland v Wales
Friday night in Dublin kicks off the round and it looks like there is only going to be one winner. Ireland are very heavy favourites with a 95% chance of victory and we are predicting a very, very comfortable 40-8 scoreline in Ireland’s favour. Ireland have done a little bit of form with their win over England at Twickenham last time out. Although Wales made it slightly uncomfortable against Scotland to give them some hope, it won’t be enough.
Scotland v France
The big one. First plays Second. France are obvious favourites and a win against Scotland would all but seal the title. Scotland made heavy weather of beating Wales, but big, important home matches are right up Scotland’s street. We predict that France have a 63% chance with Scotland having a 35% chance, so a lot closer than many people suggest. It would not be a surprise for Scotland to pull off a win, although France’s strength in depth could also see them blowing Scotland away. It promises to be a great game and if Scotland win, the championship will go down to the wire next weekend.
Italy v England
This rounds off the weekend’s action as a new and improved Italy take on a faltering England. This will be a tough fixture for England, although we give them a healthy 77% chance of success. Italy are in good form whilst England are faltering after losses to Ireland and Scotland. The pressure will be on England as they really need the win and people are expecting them to do so. However, this is definitely a real banana skin as a much more organised and improved Italian side await them at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday evening.
Who’s Going to Win Now
France are clearly the favourites with a 46% chance of completing the Grand Slam and an 83% chance of overall victory. Ireland’s 14% chance requires France to slip up in Scotland and then shockingly lose at home to England on the final day. There is still a theoretical chance Scotland could win but it is very small.
Any Value This Weekend?
Surprisingly there are two possible value options this weekend. Scotland are underpriced at home to France, look for odds over 2.98+ and 4.5 is available. Then shock of shocks, England are undervalued at the bookies! Albeit slightly, England are underpriced away at Italy as we give them a 77% chance of victory compared to a 73% chance at the bookies. Look for prices at or above 1.35.
SUPER RUGBY 2026
Round 3 Results
Round 4 Predictions
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tip For This Weekend
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