Welcome to the Six Nations Preview 5 February. We’ve completed the previews for each team and these are up on the website. Now it’s time to have a look at the tournament as a whole. It promises to be one of the best 6 Nations in years. There are three genuine title contenders in France, Ireland and England, separated by very little in the rankings. Scotland are on the outside looking in, but every match they play will be loaded with significance, as they will probably decide who wins the tournament. Then there is an improving Italy (don’t we always say that), and a despondent Wales fighting it out for the wooden spoon. It promises to be a classic.
Who’s Going to Win?
As we have noted in our team previews, there is a slight quirk to the overall predictions. Due to the nature of the fixtures, France are the team most likely to win the Grand Slam, as they host Ireland and England at home. However, it is Ireland who, perhaps surprisingly, are favourites to win the tournament. As we have explained before, this is because Ireland play Scotland at home. It is this detail which turns the odds in their favour.
The closeness of the matches between France, Ireland, and England (on paper) suggests that there is a high chance that each team wins one and loses one. On that basis (assuming Italy and Wales are straightforward victories), the key fixture will be against Scotland. England have a terrible recent record against the Scots, especially in Edinburgh, and France going to Murrayfield will be a challenge. Ireland play them at home and are predicted to win quite comfortably.
At the bottom, Wales and Italy will be fighting over the wooden spoon, with Wales likely to take the prize. Scotland will be competitive as ever, probably give someone a really bloody nose, but fail to win enough against the big three to sustain their challenge.
Week One Fixtures
We kick off the tournament on Thursday night with a blockbuster. France v Ireland in Paris. It will probably come down to a referee’s call or the bounce of the ball, as this really could go either way. France have a slight edge, especially as they are at home. Italy v Scotland should be a great game. It’s an important match for Italy, because if they lose, they will probably head to the last weekend of the tournament where they play Wales on 0 wins, which would be rather unfortunate for the growing team. Scotland need a win to get their campaign up and running but it will be far from easy. Lose and its another tournament wasted for this generation.
The Big Games
As noted, these three games, two of which bookend the tournament, are going to be close and really could go either way. They promise to be titanic fixtures and well worth the watch, especially as teams are tuning up for the World Cup next year.
How The Bookies See It – Overall Winner
The bookies have France as the clear favourites. We consider this to be very poor value. They are on average predicted to have a 58% chance of winning the title which is far too high. It is rare that there is such a difference, but punters are being swayed with the fact that they face Ireland and England at home. Ireland are seen to be on a downward trajectory, but we consider this to be somewhat overestimated according to the underlying numbers. Accordingly, there is spectacular value on a bet for Ireland to win the tournament.
How The Bookies See It – Grand Slam
The Grand Slam odds are similarly overpriced for France. The matches against Ireland and England are simply too close to call to justify that level of confidence. Again, Ireland are under-priced, but it is a long shot. England are overpriced as well. The best value would be a No Grand Slam bet, which is incorrectly priced by the bookies. Look for odds over 1.80.
How The Bookies See It – Triple Crown
No Winner of the Triple Crown looks to be the best bet, as it is over-priced at 4.35. England are overpriced, and there is value on Ireland again. Steer clear of Scotland.
Rugby4Cast’s Top Tips For This Weekend
Our top tip of the weekend comes at Ireland as they take on France. An away win for Ireland is a challenge but seriously undervalued. Look for value at 3.24+.
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