The bookies have made Arsenal favourites, but are they making a big mistake?
The Premier League Weekend Preview 3 October 2025
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 3 October 2025. Game week 7 in the Premier League. A fairly standard weekend of Premier League action with a classic matchup as Liverpool head to Chelsea on Saturday afternoon.
The action begins on Friday night, when Bournemouth host Fulham, with the home side slight favourites. Saturday’s early game sees Leeds take on Tottenham, where Leeds are surprisingly favoured despite Spurs’ strong squad. Later, Manchester United – in poor form – are favourites at Old Trafford against Sunderland, who have been the most impressive of the promoted sides so far. Arsenal, heavy favourites at home to West Ham, will look to build on their momentum under Nuno Espírito Santo’s struggling visitors.
Liverpool head to Chelsea in what looks the standout clash of Saturday, while Newcastle are fancied at home to Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Aston Villa are tipped to beat Burnley, while Everton’s meeting with Crystal Palace could go either way, though Palace hold a slight edge. Wolves host Brighton, where our model leans towards the visitors. The round concludes with Brentford at home to Manchester City on Sunday afternoon, a match in which City are overwhelming favourites.
Football4Cast: Premier League Focus – Outrights, Fixtures and Value Bets
The debate over the outright winners of the Premier League has taken an intriguing turn. At the start of the season, both our model and the bookmakers had Liverpool marked as favourites. Six games in, the bookies have shifted sharply. Liverpool’s defeat last weekend, combined with Arsenal’s dramatic late win away at Newcastle, has flipped the market. Arsenal are now rated at 45% to win the league, ahead of Liverpool at 37%.
It’s a classic case of the Premier League’s reactionary culture, where one result can tilt perception overnight. The truth, however, is that this remains a 38-game season, and no team can win every week. Our model, which simulates the season 10,000 times, continues to back Liverpool as clear favourites at 55%, with Arsenal at 35% and Manchester City slipping further back. It points to value in Liverpool’s outright price: the market threshold is 2.2, and odds of 2.6 are available.
Maybe its a time for calm rather than throwing out all the pre-season predictions over one bad result. Arsenal were themselves 6 minutes away from a 1-0 defeat last weekend at Newcastle. However, it does mean that value can be found when taking a longer term view of the market, as the bookies seemingly taking into account the public mood rather than cold hard logic.
BEFORE WEEK 6
AFTER WEEK 6
Premier League Value Bets
Value is harder to find in the Premier League than in the lower leagues, but there are still opportunities:
- Leeds v Tottenham: Leeds are underpriced at home, with our model giving them a 51% chance versus 36% in the market. The value threshold is 2.7, and 2.9 is currently available.
- Manchester United v Sunderland: United remain favourites, but Sunderland are undervalued. We rate them at 21% compared with 14% by the bookies. Odds above 6.2 are value, and 6.6 is on offer.
- Arsenal v West Ham: West Ham are long shots but carry more than the 7% the market assigns. Our model gives them an 11% chance, so anything above 12.1 is playable, with 17.5 available.
As always, there are hundreds of markets worldwide where the algorithm spots hidden value. This weekend, opportunities lie not only in the Premier League but across Europe and beyond. Subscribers get access to the full slate of recommendations and staking guidance.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
