Arsenal are favourites in the big game at home to Man City but there is little value to be had in the Premier League. Plenty to be had elsewhere though…
The Premier League Preview
Welcome to the Weekend Preview for 19 September. Game week 5 in the Premier League and the Merseyside Derby. Other than than it’s a fairly middling weekend of matchups, saved by a top of the table clash at 4:30pm on Sunday as Arsenal face Manchester City at home.
The Premier League returns this weekend with Liverpool and Everton opening proceedings in the Merseyside Derby. Our model gives Liverpool a commanding 70% chance of victory, though they have looked a little scratchy despite being four from four. Everton sit at just 13%, but their recent form suggests they may not go down quietly.
West Ham host Crystal Palace, with Palace slight favourites at 44%. West Ham’s miserable run leaves them with only a 28% chance and firmly in the thick of an early relegation battle. Brighton are rated 53% favourites at home to Tottenham, aiming to halt Spurs’ strong start under Thomas Frank.
Burnley, unlucky to lose to a last-minute penalty against Liverpool last week, are 42% favourites at home to Nottingham Forest. Ange Postecoglou’s Forest, still reeling from a 3-0 opening defeat to Arsenal, sit at 29%. Leeds United travel to Wolves in what already looks like a relegation dogfight. Leeds edge it at 40%, with Wolves battling at 31%.
Manchester United’s struggles continue, with Chelsea given a 47% chance of winning at Old Trafford. Fulham v Brentford looks finely balanced — Fulham 42%, Brentford 29%, and the draw also 29%. Bournemouth v Newcastle on Sunday is another tight affair, Bournemouth on 36% and Newcastle 35%.
Aston Villa, without a win so far, are backed at 52% away to Sunderland, though the hosts have looked lively under Roger Le Brice. The weekend closes with the standout fixture: Arsenal at home to Manchester City. Our model tips Arsenal at 47% to edge it, though City remain dangerous with tactical tweaks and Erling Haaland in spectacular form.
Weekend Preview: Premier League Betting Outlook
Value is hard to find in this week’s Premier League markets. Burnley v Nottingham Forest is the only real opportunity of picking a suprise winner. Burnley are underpriced so look for value over 3.2.
And one to avoid: in the Merseyside derby, steer clear as it looks correctly priced.
Weekend Preview 19 September: Where is the Value?
Championship and Lower Leagues
There’s not much value at the top this weekend, but the lower leagues in England continue to throw up opportunities:
Cheltenham v Oldham (League Two, Saturday 3pm)
Cheltenham have a 46% chance compared to the bookies’ 33%. Value threshold 2.7 — 3.1 is available.
Blackburn v Ipswich Town (Championship, Saturday 3pm)
Blackburn rated 37% by our model vs 27% in the market. Look for anything over 3.7 — 4.0 is out there.
Mansfield Town v Port Vale (League One, Saturday 3pm)
Mansfield 37% against the bookies’ 31%. Value over 3.4, with 3.55 currently available.
Around The World
Here is just a taste of the dozens of opportunities we have identified in leagues around the world…
Alaves v Sevilla (La Liga, Saturday 4:30pm)
Alaves 55% against the bookies’ 41%. Value over 2.4, with 2.52 available.
Ulsan HD v Anyang (K League 1, Sunday 7:30am)
Anyang are very under priced: 31% against the bookies’ 23%. Value over 4.4, with 4.5 available.
Falkenbergs FF v GIF Sundsvall (Superttan, Friday 5:00pm)
Sundsvall have a 35% chance in our model compared to just 28% with the bookies. Value over 3.6, with 3.95 available.
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Premier League Outright Chances
Let’s have a quick update on the overall Premier League winners predictions:
It’s looking good for Liverpool, and pretty bleak for Wolves and West Ham at the other end of the table. Manchester United are in a relegation battle as well, despite what many pundits might tell you, unless they make changes soon.
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