Welcome to the Weekend Preview 26 June. The domestic season came to an end everywhere outside of France with Northampton overcoming Exeter in a gripping final. Leinster steamrollered the Bulls and the Hurricanes were imperious against the Chiefs. Now, it’s time for the Top 14 and we get stuck into it.
The Top 14 Final Preview – Toulouse v Montpellier
This weekend brings the Top 14 final, with Toulouse facing Montpellier in Paris in what on paper looks a fascinating contest despite our model giving Toulouse a fairly clear 79% chance of victory with a predicted score of 34-19. Toulouse finished top of the table with Montpellier second, but interestingly it is Montpellier who carry the better recent form into the final, winning 9 of their last 10 in the league compared to Toulouse’s 6 from 10, even if the head to head history still points heavily in Toulouse’s favour, with 27 wins from 41 meetings down the years.
What will give Toulouse real confidence is the manner in which they dismantled Racing 92 in their semi final, putting up a huge score that announced them as the side to beat (oh, and having Dupont at 9 helps, I guess). Montpellier got the job done in their own semi but in a far more low key fashion, so there is a clear contrast in the way the two have arrived at this final, with Toulouse peaking at the right moment and Montpellier grinding their way through. Montpellier will be reliant on a few British Isles old timers in Ali Price at half-back and Billy Vunipola at eight. They will have to be on their game to compete with Ramos, Dupont and co. Toulouse also have their English player in Jack Willis, captain, and who is in great form and will want to make his mark on the final, considering he has given up an England career for moments like this. Toulouse are just too good 1 to 15 to have them anything other than favourites, apart from the obvious, look out for Chocobares at 12 for Toulouse as he is one of the best centres in the world. His name literally translates as Barcrasher which is excellent.
One factor that could yet have a real bearing on proceedings is the weather, with incredibly hot conditions forecast that could turn this into much more of an attritional battle than the form lines might suggest. If the heat saps energy levels as the game wears on, that tends to favour the side with greater squad depth and firepower off the bench, which on balance still points towards Toulouse. However it could be the curve ball Montpellier need to cause an upset.
In terms of match odds, there isn’t any value in this match to bet on. The bookies have Toulouse as heavy favourites at 80%, same as us. Stay clear as no value even if you think a Toulouse win is fairly safe territory.
The Nations Championship – kick-off a week away
What’s this all about then? Basically like the Nations League in football. Give an overarching sense of meaning to international tests, which is fairly debateable whether it is necessary in rugby. Anyway, the format is as follows (so you are all clued up this week):
The 2026 Nations Championship is the inaugural edition of a brand new international rugby union competition featuring twelve men’s teams. The sides are divided into two pools of six and play a full round robin against the teams in the opposing pool across the mid year and end of year windows, with the top teams in each pool advancing to a final in London. Matches kick off with three rounds from next week, and then two further rounds in Autumn.
That’s all for this weekend, but watch out for next weekend and all the previews when the inaugral Nations Championship kicks off and the countdown to next year’s World Cup starts in earnest.
