Do Red Cards Ruin Matches?
Sports4Cast recently performed some analysis with World Rugby, looking at the effects of red cards in matches. Given this divisive topic, we decided to publish some of the results on twitter to add to the debate.
Our analysis showed that, based on our sample size of around 300 or so matches with cards in it, a card ‘costs’ the home side around 0.14 points per minute, and the away side around double that, at 0.28 points per minute.
Therefore a yellow card would cost a home side about 1.5 points, or half a penalty, with the away side around 3 points, or a full penalty. Red cards are clearly more dependent on the time of the card, with cards earlier in the game costing the side more.
This analysis was picked up by Charlie Morgan and The Telegraph and formed part of an article they wrote on the subject.