Tips

Greetings, friend. So, you fancy a flutter on some matches based on our predictions? You must be mad! MAD! We have no idea what we’re doing. But, if you insist…

At the time of writing (Thursday 21st June) here’s how it stands:

Quick Summary:

Australia v Ireland – mathematically, Australia might be worth a bet.

South Africa v England – probably avoid

New Zealand v France – avoid

Argentina v Scotland – Awaiting odds

Australia v Ireland

Our computer prediction:

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The bookies have:

  • Australia – 11/8 – 42%
  • Ireland – 4/7 – 64%

Ireland by 4.

It’s a tough one to call this, as we make it really balanced on a knife edge, so are surprised to see the bookies back Ireland by 4.

Mathematically, by our model, Australia would be worth a small bet as we have them marginal favourites. However, Australia are also weaker in Sydney than elsewhere in Australia, so perhaps arguments can be made for Ireland! Up to you, but a small bet on Australia might be worth it.

South Africa v England

Our computer prediction:

photo5863867297192586393

The bookies have:

  • South Africa – 4/7 – 64%
  • England – 6/4 – 40%

South Africa by 5.

Pretty similar to how we see it. We’d probably avoid this one. However, it is still close and we’ll leave it for you to judge!

 

Argentina v Scotland

Our computer predictions:

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The bookies have:

  • Argentina –
  • Scotland –

New Zealand v France

Our computer predictions:

photo5863867297192586391.jpg

The bookies have:

  • New Zealand – 1/25 – 96%
  • France – 12/1 – 7.7%

Avoid, doesn’t seem to be any arbitrage in this match.

coralnewcust

General advice

Our recommendations for betting are as follows.

As mentioned here, each predicted score is actually a metric to describe the relative historical strength of the two teams, based on their performances over previous years. What this means is that our predictions are generally a good place to start in forming an opinion on what may happen in upcoming matches, but you may want to plonk on top some of your own knowledge as well.

  • For example, we don’t currently take into account player selection or the impact of ‘big’, or Championship defining, games, so if you think that there are a few other qualitative factors that may influence the outcome of the match then feel free to judge how much they will affect the predictions and bet accordingly.

We wouldn’t recommend straying too far from our predictions, generally speaking they are pretty accurate, around 80% at the time of writing, but if you think we’ve missed something, feel free to adjust for it. And please let us know after, thanks!

We’d also recommend looking at the odds relative to our predictions, and betting if it appears there is a large discrepancy. You could also use an odds booster like the below to maximise your chances.

oddsboost

  • For example, in the 2017 Six Nations opening match between Scotland and Ireland at Murrayfield, Ireland were tipped by the bookies as strong favourites. However, our model gave Scotland a reasonable chance of victory – we still had Ireland as favourites, but it was only by 3 or 4 points, rather than the bookies 10 – 15. In this situation, it may have been worth a punt on Scotland due to the mismatch in the predictions and odds. Indeed, Scotland went on to win that game…

A couple of don’ts … (or, we’d really advise against)

DON’T 

  • Put a massive accumulator on all the games we’ve predicted. Some of them will be 50:50s and therefore could go either way. Have a look at the % chances we’ve given each team in each match and bet accordingly.
  • Come crying to us when your bet didn’t come off. This is sport, unpredictable stuff happens, and that’s why we love it!

And the obvious one to finish…

  • DON’T bet what you can’t afford to lose. Be sensible.

If you have any questions about the data, the model or anything else, please don’t hesitate to get in contact. There’s nothing we’d like better than a good argument about the importance of home advantage in the outcome of a rugby match!

Rugby4Cast