It is bad news for West Ham in the relegation battle. The model has West Ham at an 89% chance of going down and Spurs at only 11%
Weekend Preview 22 May – Who’s Going Down?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview 22 May. Arsenal were confirmed Champions midweek as Manchester City could only draw away to Bournemouth. Now, all eyes will turn to Spurs and West Ham to see which one of these historic teams will be playing in the Championship next year. European places will also be confirmed as the league concludes on Sunday afternoon.
Premier League Final Weekend Preview
Arsenal are Champions! Manchester City could only draw away at Bournemouth midweek, confirming that Arsenal are champions before the final weekend of the season. A very impressive effort indeed, even if their style and manager are not to everyone’s taste. It was mid-October that the model identified Arsenal as favourites for the title, as Liverpool, the early frontrunners and favourites, came unstuck. Surprisingly, Manchester City started the season way down on around 10%. Since then, Arsenal have been the model’s favourites and have not let up as those around them have fallen and failed to take advantage of any Arsenal slip ups. Despite City’s late surge, the model was remarkably clear for the past few months. The percentage varied slightly week to week depending on results, but essentially Arsenal were 70%+ favourites for all of 2026.
The model’s faith in Arsenal came to a head after the match between City and Arsenal which saw City win and, had they won their remaining six games or so, would have seen them overtake Arsenal and take the title. The markets overreacted and installed City as favourites. Meanwhile, the model was clear that Arsenal’s run in was so much easier and they were still clear favourites. People were accustomed to the City machine and assumed they would defeat all before them, however, with predicted win rates of around 65-75% for their matches, there was plenty of opportunity for City to drop points and it was highly unlikely that they would go undefeated to take the title. Right after that City Arsenal match, the divergence between the model’s predictions and the bookies was most stark as people rushed to bet on City. The model still had Arsenal with a 70%+ chance of winning the title and bookies were offering 2.2 plus. Odds of 2.2 translate to a less than 50% chance of winning, which was a great value opportunity identified by the model that ultimately proved correct.
At the other end of the table, West Ham were poor last weekend and went down easily at Newcastle 3-1, leaving themselves two points behind Spurs, who had a game in hand. However, on Tuesday night, Spurs could not take advantage and lost 2-1 to Chelsea. This means it has come down to the final weekend of the season. Tottenham have a two point cushion, so a win or a draw would be enough considering their goal difference advantage of 12. West Ham need to win and Spurs need to lose for West Ham to survive and Tottenham to go down.
Premier League Fixtures
Sunday 4pm UK Time
The big matches to watch out for are Tottenham v Everton and West Ham v Leeds United. It is very tight as the model has both matches as possibly going either way. Spurs v Everton is incredibly tight with the chances of victory being 35% apiece. West Ham v Leeds is also tight but West Ham have a 33% chance of winning compared to Leeds at 40%. If both sides draw, which is a real possibility, then West Ham will go down.
Elsewhere in the race for European places, Brighton will be looking to slip into sixth with a win against Manchester United. Bournemouth will want to tie up sixth place themselves and a potential Champions League spot depending on Liverpool and Villa’s results. If Liverpool win and Villa lose, then as Villa are Europa League champions, the fifth Champions League spot will go to sixth, Europa League to seventh and Conference League to eighth. If Villa get a draw or better then they finish fourth and sixth and seventh would get Europa and eighth Conference League. That fight for seventh and eighth between Brighton, Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland will also be intense. Overall, there is a lot to keep track of on Sunday afternoon as all matches kick off at the same time at 4pm.
Market Outlook
It is bad news for West Ham in the relegation battle. The model has West Ham at an 89% chance of going down and Spurs at only 11%. This means that there is value on West Ham to get relegated at 1.4 and above, and 2.9 is still out there, with the market thinking that Spurs are favourites to go down. This may well just reflect market sentiment, with lots of people placing bets on hope rather than any actual data analysis. A terrible approach.
As for the matches themselves, there isn’t any value out there at the moment, as the games are fairly accurately priced.
Championship Play-Off Final
After all of the scandal of the Southampton Spygate affair and their expulsion from the Championship playoffs, it would be remiss not to have a look at the Championship Play-Off Final.
Middlesbrough are the favourites, with the model giving them a 38% chance compared to Hull’s 33%. However, the bookies have Boro as heavier favourites and are not giving Hull much of a chance. Our model suggests that it will be a very tight affair and could well go all the way to penalties. Middlesbrough finished the regular season in fifth place with Hull just behind them in sixth, a four point gap between the two sides.
Top Tip of the Weekend
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