The model has Arsenal as firm favourites once again, with Man City only having a 15% chance of winning the title. For all intents and purposes, it is wrapped up and heading to North London.
Weekend Preview 8 May – Once Again, Arsenal Can’t Lose It…surely?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview, 8 May. A massive weekend in both the Premier League and the Scottish Prem with only three games to go for the majority. Arsenal made it to the final of the European Cup this week where they will face PSG, and they will head to West Ham in a massive game with significance at both ends of the table. There are plenty of key games as teams chase Europe, and in Scotland, the most exciting title race ever gets closer to its conclusion. We preview all of the action to get you up to speed.
Premier League Standings
So often this season, Arsenal have built up a strong lead, only for a few poor results to open the door for their rivals, who then trip over themselves as they try to take advantage. Then Arsenal get their act together and stretch the lead again. Only a couple of weeks ago, as Man City moved into top spot by defeating Arsenal and Burnley, it looked like the title was once again heading to Manchester following a phenomenal choke from Arsenal. However, as Man City had an FA Cup semi-final, then were scheduled to play on Monday, Arsenal, all of a sudden, following a pair of routine victories, opened up a six-point gap again. Man City travelled to Everton knowing they needed to win to keep up the pressure, but they could only manage a draw, salvaged in the final minute of injury time as once again they could not keep up the pressure on Arsenal.
Down at the other end of the table, the momentum turned as Tottenham won excellently away at Aston Villa, who had one eye on their Europa League semi-final in midweek. Meanwhile, West Ham lost comfortably away at Brentford, which saw them slip into the relegation zone as Tottenham look to have got their act together just in time.
The race for Europe is tighter than ever. With Villa’s victory against Forest in the Europa League semi-final, there is now the distinct possibility that they finish in 5th in the league and win the Europa, which would mean that Champions League qualification goes down to 6th. Just six points separate Bournemouth in 6th from Newcastle in 13th, showing how tight and competitive the Premier League is this year.
In many ways, with the greater financial power of all teams in the Premier League, the trend should move towards greater competitiveness as all teams can find quality players and quality managers. Talk of position is therefore a little irrelevant, 14th now is not what 14th was even a few years ago; the league has become much more competitive. In such an environment, it will be fascinating to see who can reach Europe and possibly take a step towards growth that only a few years ago seemed inconceivable.
The model has Arsenal as firm favourites once again, with Man City only having a 15% chance of winning the title. For all intents and purposes, it is wrapped up and heading to North London.
There is still value on Arsenal to win the league, as remarkably they are still under-priced. Look for odds of 1.4+.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Liverpool host Chelsea in the early kick-off on Saturday. Liverpool are pretty much assured of Champions League next season, but will be looking to bounce back from a poor loss to Manchester United last weekend. Arne Slot looks to have the backing to remain in the job for next season, but he will want a strong end to the season to quieten any doubts which are circling. Meanwhile, managerless Chelsea are a mess and are in real danger of not making Europe in any guise next season. They had better get their act together, but it will probably not be this weekend.
Brighton should beat Wolves to boost their chances of making Europe, whilst Fulham v Bournemouth should be a good, close game. Fulham need the win if they are to get into European contention. Manchester United have third sewn up and have plenty of momentum as they head to Sunderland, who need a win like Fulham. Then later on Saturday, Man City host Brentford, needing a win if they are not to hand the title to Arsenal this weekend.
On Sunday, Aston Villa should cruise past relegated Burnley, Crystal Palace and Everton should be a tight mid-table affair, and Newcastle travel to Nottingham as they seek to keep up their outside chances of making Europe. Then, depending on the City result, Arsenal can all but seal the title away to West Ham. West Ham in turn will be desperate for a result in their relegation battle against Tottenham. While Arsenal are the clear favourites on paper, West Ham’s desperation might make it a closer game than expected.
Finally, on Monday evening, Tottenham host Leeds. Leeds have done marvellously to be safe from relegation, whereas Tottenham will know that depending on the West Ham result, they can either get clear water between them and the relegation zone, or need to win to not drop right back in it with two games to go. Again, on paper, it could go either way, and possibly Leeds are very slight favourites according to the model; but the relegation fear could tip the tie in Spurs’ favour.
Scotland – Just Hearts and Celtic Left!
Hearts beat Rangers 2-1 last weekend to knock Rangers out of the title race. With three games to go, Hearts have a three point lead with a 5 goal GD advantage over Celtic. The model has been so reluctant to look beyond Celtic for the title, even amidst of their managerial carnage half way through the season. However, now, it has seen the light, and has Hearts as 72% favourites to win the league in what would be a remarkable achievement.
It is no way near party time quite yet, as Hearts still have to go to Celtic on the final day of the season, so Hearts can afford no slip ups in their two other matches.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Hearts head to Motherwell who will be no pushovers as they have had an excellent season themselves. They did lose last weekend to Falkirk 1-0, but this is one that could go either way, and could well end in a draw.
Old Firm Derby
Celtic do not have it easy this weekend as they look to take advantage of any Hearts slip-ups. They have the small matter of the Old Firm Derby as they host Rangers. In the last five games between them, Celtic haven’t won once, with three draws and two defeats. With so much on the line for both sides, (for Rangers, who can’t win the title, the next best thing would be to stop Celtic winning it), this should be a real ding-dong.
That’s it for the weekend preview. Sign up to get all the analysis across all leagues and the value opportunities which emerge daily, across thousands of games worldwide.
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