The model thinks Arsenal still have a real chance, but is their (and Arteta’s) mental fragility such that the title is quite simply beyond them?
Weekend Preview 24 April – Advantage Man City & FA Cup Semi Finals
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview, 24 April. There are some great ties at both ends of the table in the Premier League, and Scotland enters the final straight in a great three-way battle for the title. There are also the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley to look forward to in a strong weekend of football action. Read on for a preview of all the action.
Premier League Standings
In what was billed as the match to decide the title, Man City emerged 2-1 victors over Arsenal last weekend, which coupled with their midweek 1-0 victory over Burnley, puts them in the driving seat for the title. It is quite remarkable that it has come to this, but Arsenal have faltered when it has mattered most in quite remarkable fashion. At one point not so long ago they had a 90% plus chance of winning the title, and will surely be remembered as the biggest choke since Newcastle in 1997. However, it is not all doom and gloom. In the performance that they put in, there were actual signs of life and attacking intent which had been so absent in previous weeks. If they play like they did against Man City, they could win the title still. They have the easier run in than Man City and the model now says it is pretty much a 50/50 split. Could there be significant value in the market on an Arsenal title win? The model thinks so, but is Arsenal’s (and Arteta’s) mental fragility such that the title is quite simply beyond them?
At the other end of the table we wave cheerio to Wolves and Burnley and hope that they do not come back for a while in these iterations. It is a straight shootout between Spurs and West Ham now, as both sides drew last weekend.
This Weekend’s Premier League Fixtures
Arsenal host Newcastle as they seek to return to the top of the table. Eddie Howe’s job at Newcastle should be safe after the phenomenal job he has carried out, however the transitory nature of modern football has left some people questioning whether he will still be in post following a poor season as new signings just have not clicked. A defeat at Arsenal, which is likely, will not help the cause, although in the scheme of things it should not bear much weight when looking at the larger body of work he has carried out at the club.
Fulham host Aston Villa as Fulham seek to keep their European dreams alive. It is a similar situation as Brentford head to Old Trafford on Monday night.
Meanwhile at the bottom of the table, the two matches to look out for are West Ham at home to Everton, which could go either way according to the model, and Tottenham heading to recently relegated Wolves. If Spurs do not win against Wolves, that would be a real blow to their hopes of survival. There were encouraging signs of life for Spurs in their 2-2 draw with Brighton last weekend, and with De Zerbi at the helm, they might just escape.
FA Cup Semi-Finals
Man City v Southampton
This is clearly advantage Man City. After such questioning of their abilities during the first half of the season, there is a real possibility that Manchester City can carry out a domestic double, which would be a real achievement in what might be Pep Guardiola’s final year. They will be the firm favourites for this one, although in a curious statistical quirk, Haaland has never scored in a semi-final or final for Man City. Southampton were excellent as they knocked out Arsenal in the quarter-final, although on Wembley’s large pitch which suits Man City, it will be a monumental task. They have improved remarkably this season in the Championship and recovered from a terrible start to be in playoff contention in fourth place.
Prediction: 3-0 Man City
Chelsea v Leeds
Chelsea fired Liam Rosenior this week after deciding that a couple of months into a six year contract was enough to see that they were going nowhere under his leadership. Chelsea’s players had clearly abandoned him, as they lost tamely 3-0 to Brighton in midweek. It is a shame that players effectively decide on whether a manager stays or goes, as it is always said that it is easier to fire one man than replace a whole team. When history has proven over and over again that long term managers are beneficial and can enjoy great success, it is odd that more is not done to correct this power balance within changing rooms. Anyway, it leaves Chelsea managerless, which is probably a better thing for them in the short term considering the personalities that they have in the team at the moment. Leeds are buzzing right now as they look safe from relegation in what has been a very good season for Daniel Farke. Can they defeat Chelsea to really make it a memorable season?
Prediction: 2-1 Leeds
Scotland – The Table Splits
After the Scottish Cup semi-finals last weekend, the table has now split into two halves of 1-6 and 7-12, with each team playing each other to decide the final placings. In a brilliant battle at the top, Hearts, Rangers and Celtic are separated by just three points. As we head into the final fixtures where they play each other, who has the edge?
The model has Rangers as the firm favourites, although Celtic and Hearts do have a real chance.
This weekend, Rangers host Motherwell, Celtic host Falkirk and Hearts have to travel to Hibs. This would suggest advantage to Rangers and Celtic, but the season has been so brilliant, and Hearts have been at the top for so long, do not count them out. Definitely a title race not to miss.
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