Arsenal’s lead has been cut to just four points at the top of the table, but realistically, it is still theirs to lose
Does Anyone Want To Win the Title?
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for Friday 30 January. It’s starting to feel like no one wants to win the Premier League this year. Arsenal had a 90% chance of claiming the title before last weekend, yet they managed to lose 3–2 at home to a rejuvenated Manchester United. Defeats like these are not the hallmark of champions. Arsenal’s lead has been cut to just four points at the top of the table, but realistically, it is still theirs to lose. Taking into account the matches remaining and the likelihood of victory in each game, Arsenal still have a stranglehold on the title with a 73% chance of victory.
Premier League Predictions
There is no early kick-off on Saturday, with three matches getting underway at three o’clock. The pick of the bunch is Leeds United at home to Arsenal. On paper, Arsenal hold a clear edge with a 57% chance of victory and should, in theory, take all three points. However, as noted above, Arsenal are stuttering and looking increasingly out of sorts domestically, despite cruising in the Champions League. They have openly spoken about the pressure of leading the table and trying to win the title, and Elland Road is never an easy place to go. Do not be surprised if Leeds manage to get a result here, and if they do, the wheels really could start to come off Arsenal’s title bid.
Elsewhere at three o’clock, Wolves host Bournemouth. Wolves have shown some mild improvement, but realistically they are stuck at the bottom and will go down. Bournemouth, meanwhile, sit 13th but are only three points off eighth, making this an important match for them. They come into it full of confidence after an excellent 3–2 home win over Liverpool last weekend. Brighton are also at home, taking on Everton. Brighton sit 12th with Everton 10th, and Everton are very much in striking distance of sixth place, just three points behind Liverpool. Despite that, the model slightly favours Brighton, giving them a 44% chance of victory.
Chelsea host West Ham later on Saturday afternoon. West Ham come into this on the back of two straight wins, including a strong comeback victory over Sunderland last weekend, but they are likely to be up against it at Stamford Bridge, with Chelsea strongly favoured.
Saturday night brings an 8pm kick-off in what is always a cracking fixture, as Liverpool host Newcastle. Liverpool are the heavy favourites with a 58% chance of victory according to the model, but both sides are coming off disappointing results. Liverpool were beaten away at Bournemouth last weekend, while Newcastle lost 2–0 at home to Aston Villa. With both clubs chasing Champions League qualification, this feels like a game where intensity and urgency will be high from the first minute.
Sunday begins with Aston Villa at home to Brentford. Villa are strong favourites and will be looking to build momentum in their title push after an impressive win at Newcastle last weekend. Manchester United then host Fulham at Old Trafford. The model leans towards United with a 46% chance of victory, which would make it three wins in a row following eye-catching results against Manchester City and Arsenal. However, Fulham are flying, sitting just four points behind United in fourth, so this is far from straightforward.
Tottenham, struggling for form, welcome Manchester City in what looks like a difficult afternoon for the hosts. We are backing a City away win quite confidently here. Nottingham Forest are at home to Crystal Palace in a match that feels like a relegation six-pointer. Forest are showing signs of life, while Palace are sliding, and the lean is towards the home side. The round closes on Monday night with Sunderland hosting Burnley, where we are leaning Sunderland to pick up three valuable points against a Burnley side firmly heading in the wrong direction.
Premier League – What The Bookies Say
What the bookies are saying about the title race is pretty in line with the model when it comes to Arsenal. Both the model and the bookies are giving Arsenal a 73% chance. The bookies are slightly overvaluing Manchester City at 26% compared to the model’s 16%. However, there is potentially value on Aston Villa springing a surprise as a longer shot. The model gives them an 11% chance compared to just 6% at the bookies. That implies a value threshold of 11.2, with odds available at 17.
Scotland – Hearts Massively Undervalued For the Title
Over in Scotland, after Hearts and Celtic drew last weekend, the bookies have got it wrong. There is potential value on a Hearts title victory. We now have Celtic at a 20% chance of winning the title. This is their lowest at any point this season, whilst the bookies are still giving them around a 40% chance. This looks heavily overvalued. Rangers are more accurately priced, with the model at 34% compared to 36% at the bookies. Hearts, however, are given a whopping 46% chance of winning the title by the model, compared to just 34% with the bookies. That implies value above 2.6, with odds of 3.2 available.
Football4Cast Tip of the Weekend
Over in Greece, NFC Volos are undervalued at home to Apollon Limassol. Look for odds of 1.76+.
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