Consistency over the whole season is what wins titles, and from day one this year, Arsenal have been the most consistent
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 2nd January 2026
Welcome to the Football4Cast Weekend Preview for 2 January 2026. Happy New Year! It’s been a hectic Christmas and New Year period and its getting rather interesting the Premier League… Which teams will be able to ride out the storm of these fixtures and get ahead. After Arsenal smashed Aston Villa, their chances of winning the title climbed back to over 70%. Can they keep hold of it this weekend?
Premier League
This Weekend’s Fixtures
There is a full slate of action this weekend. Aston Villa look to bounce back from a really damaging defeat to Arsenal when they host Nottingham Forest at Villa Park, and our model gives them a dominant 65% chance of victory — strong favourites to return to winning ways. Not so great news for Sean Dyche’s men who are in a run of indifferent form that sees them heading for the relegation scrap. Brighton are also expected to deliver at home against Burnley, with a 56% win probability suggesting they’ll have too much attacking quality for the struggling visitors. Things get tighter at Molineux, in a real relgeation 6 pointer where Wolves face West Ham in a clash that could go either way, both sides badly needing victory.
In the late Saturday kickoff, Arsenal travel to Bournemouth with a 62% chance of taking all three points as they look to consolidate their place at the top after regaining momentum. Sunday opens with an intriguing matchup at Elland Road — Leeds United versus Manchester United — a rivalry that remains unpredictable, with the numbers calling it evenly balanced. Tottenham host Sunderland in another close contest, where the data suggests neither side holds a decisive edge.
At Craven Cottage, Liverpool should be too strong for Fulham, with a 52% win probability despite recent inconsistency. Newcastle welcome Crystal Palace to St James’ Park, and Eddie Howe’s side are backed to return to form with a 46% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Everton face Brentford in one of the most finely poised matches of the round, both desperate to find rhythm before the festive fixtures pile up.
The standout clash comes at the Etihad, where Manchester City are strong favourites (59%) to beat Chelsea and close the gap on Arsenal. Man City suffered a damaging draw away at Sunderland on Thursday. Chelsea, meanwhile, are in the midst of great upheaval as they got rid of their manager, Enzo Maresca in midweek.
Premier League Season Chances
Arsenal surged back to over 70%+ chance of winning the league following their dominant victory over Aston Villa. Arsenal had been on the slide in recent weeks, however, their odds never dropped below 60%. This reflects how longer term trends are more important to identify that short term peaks in form. Aston Villa, for example, never got above 6.1% chance of winning the title, and have now dropped to just 4.6%. This reflects the difficulty in maintaining their excellent form over a long season, and indicative of how it does not take much to knock a challenger right back down. Consistency over the whole season is what wins titles, and from day one this year, Arsenal have been the most consistent. Manchester City are by no means out of it. However, their continued habit of dropping points in winnable games is probably going to cost them.
Premier League Value
As usual, the Premier League market is broadly accurate. But there is a standout opportunity this weekend. Aston Villa are undervalued at home to Nottingham Forest. Our model gives Villa a 65% chance of bouncing back following their bad loss last time out. The bookies have them at 56%. That’s a clear edge — look for value above 1.78, and with 1.78 available, this one stands out as the weekend’s best bet.
Best Value Elsewhere This Weekend
As usual, there is plenty of value to be had outside the Premier League. Make sure you sign up for all the opportunities we identify. Here are just a small selection of all the unbelievable value we have identified.
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