Our model gives Arsenal an 82% chance of winning the Premier League title, a stratospheric number that underlines the gulf in class between them and the rest of the league
The Premier League strides on as Liverpool implode. Arsenal are looking untouchable whilst Man City also stumble…
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 28 November 2025
The Premier League
It’s been another dramatic week across Europe — none more so than in the Premier League, where storylines continue to twist by the hour.
Liverpool’s collapse has become the biggest talking point in English football. A shocking 3–0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest was followed by a 4–1 thrashing by PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League — both results compounding what now looks like a full-blown crisis. Slot’s side look devoid of confidence, defensive solidity, and attacking cohesion. The question this weekend: can Liverpool arrest the slide when they travel to face a resurgent West Ham, unbeaten in their last two with a win and a draw?
At the other end of the spectrum, Arsenal are simply unstoppable. Their 4–1 demolition of Tottenham underlined not only their dominance in North London but also across Europe. Our model gives them an 82% chance of winning the Premier League title, a stratospheric number that underlines the gulf in class — it would now take an almighty collapse for Arsenal not to lift the trophy come May.
Manchester City slipped up away at Newcastle, losing ground in the title race. Newcastle bounced back brilliantly after a rough few weeks on the road and showed once again they’re capable of beating anyone at home. Meanwhile, Chelsea continue their resurgence — a 3–0 midweek Champions League win over Barcelona stole headlines thanks to teenage sensation Estevão, who looks every inch the real deal. Chelsea face another test this weekend but have momentum firmly on their side.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Brentford host Burnley, Sunderland take on Bournemouth, and Manchester City face Leeds at the Etihad in a fixture they should control. Tottenham host Fulham, while Everton, buoyed by a stunning away win at Old Trafford, now face Newcastle at home looking to build on that result.
On Sunday the big match is a London derby as Arsenal face a tough test away at Chelsea. In the form that they are in, Arsenal will be very confident. However, Chelsea are more than capable of pulling off an upset. West Ham will be looking to increase the pain for Liverpool and Forest v Brighton looks like it could be a cracker.
Premier League Tip of the Weekend
Crystal Palace v Manchester United is another one to watch. Palace are in decent form and United’s defeat to Everton has dented their confidence. It could be a tricky afternoon for Ten Hag’s side, with our model giving Palace a 50% chance of victory compared to the bookies’ 43% — look for odds above 2.11, with 2.41 currently available. That’s our value pick of the week in the Premier League.
Scotland: Celtic Pull Clear Again
Over in the Scottish Premiership, the early-season excitement around Hearts has faded quickly. After a strong start, they were beaten away at Aberdeen, while Celtic cruised past St Mirren. The model has Celtic’s title probability climbing back to 84%, with Hearts slipping to 6% — the familiar order reasserting itself north of the border.
Best Value This Weekend
As usual, there is plenty of value to be had outside the Premier League. Make sure you sign up for all the opportunities we identify.
Here are a couple of great opportunities we have identified this weekend:
Premium Members – Bet Grading
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, and plenty of picks identified to grow your betting pot, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
