Coventry have surged to an 89% chance of promotion, a remarkable turnaround from their modest pre-season expectations
The International break is over (Hallelujah!) and the Premier League is back. Man City travel to Newcastle in the big game and Arsenal take on Tottenham.
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 21 November 2025
The Premier League – Where are we at?
We’re now just past the quarter mark of the Premier League season, and the table is starting to take shape. Arsenal remain top after their 2–2 draw away to Sunderland, extending their unbeaten run to six league matches. Manchester City are the official challengers to Arsenal following a commanding 3–0 win over Liverpool, while Chelsea’s 3–0 victory over Wolves keeps them third on 20 points.
Sunderland’s impressive start continues — they sit fourth, just a point behind Chelsea.. Tottenham, Aston Villa, and Manchester United all sit close behind on 18 points, with Villa’s 4–0 demolition of Bournemouth one of last weekend’s standout performances.
Liverpool’s defeat at the Etihad has seen them slide down to eighth, level on points with United, Villa, and Spurs. Further down, Bournemouth, Palace, and Brighton occupy mid-table, while Everton’s 2–0 win over Fulham has lifted them up to 13th. Newcastle’s struggles persist after a 3–1 defeat to Brentford, and they now hover just above the bottom six.
At the other end, Burnley, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest all grabbed vital wins, the latter beating Leeds 3–1 in a key result near the bottom. Wolves remain rooted to the foot of the table, still without a win after eleven games, and already facing an uphill fight for survival.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
Another busy weekend of Premier League action lies ahead. There are crucial fixtures across the table and several standout contests that could shape the race at both ends.
At Turf Moor, Burnley host Chelsea in the early kick-off. Chelsea are favoured with a 44% chance of victory and will expect to take all three points against a struggling Burnley side. Later in the afternoon, Liverpool welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield. Our model gives the home side a commanding 68% chance of victory. Forest will need a near-perfect defensive display to stay in the match.
Elsewhere, Fulham face Sunderland in a tight mid-table battle at Craven Cottage. Fulham edge it with a 49% forecast, but Sunderland’s great form makes this one less straightforward. Brighton take on Brentford at the Amex, and while the model leans toward Brighton (50%), this could easily go either way given both sides’ inconsistent recent form.
At the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth host West Ham, with Bournemouth backed at 58%. After a series of good home performances, they’ll be confident of taking the points. Wolves versus Crystal Palace rounds off the 3pm kick-offs, and our model leans towards Palace (54%), to pick up the points against the basement club.
Saturday’s late match sees Newcastle at home to Manchester City. City are favourites at 50% and will look to keep their title challenge going. However, Newcastle’s strong home record will give them confidence.
Sunday begins with Leeds against Aston Villa. Villa, given a 43% chance of victory, are expected to continue their good run, while Leeds’ inconsistent results leave them as underdogs despite home advantage. Later in the day, Arsenal host Tottenham at the Emirates. Arsenal are clear favourites at 73% and are expected to maintain their strong title push against their North London rivals.
Finally, on Monday night, Manchester United host Everton at Old Trafford. United, with a 46% chance of success, will look to build on recent good results, though Everton’s resilience under Dyche could make this another close contest to end the round.
Betting Outlook Premier League
As usual, the Premier League offers slim pickings. Bookies tend to have it pretty well sussed. However, there is one opportunity of note: Burnley at home to Chelsea. Whilst Chelsea are rightfully favourites, Burnley have a 27% chance of causing an upset. The bookies have priced it at 16% meaning that odds over 4.08 are good value, and we have found odds of 7.08 out there – great value. As always, one has to remember that a bet on Burnley does not mean that you think Burnley are going to win. Rather it means that this is greater return on your risk than there should be, and so a good opportunity.
Premier League Title Odds
Arsenal are clear favourites, but after the lasst round of fixtures, their chances have dropped slightly. Man City’s win against Liverpool has put daylight between them. Man City now having a 26% chance of winning the title. Value to be had as the bookies have them at 20%.
Best Value This Weekend
As usual, there is plenty of value to be had outside the Premier League. Make sure you sign up for all the opportunities we identify.
Here are a couple of A grade opportunities we have identified this weekend:
Premium Members – Bet Grading
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, and plenty of picks identified to grow your betting pot, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
