Man City v Liverpool: can anyone emerge to be a serious title rival to Arsenal this season?
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 7 November 2025. It’s another full slate of domestic action. Arsenal continue to stride ahead, but this weekend all eyes are on their nearest challengers as Man City host Liverpool in a real heavyweight clash.
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 7 November 2025
Premier League Preview
Last Weekend in the Premier League – Week 10 Recap
It was another eventful weekend in the Premier League, with the title race tightening and pressure building at both ends of the table. Arsenal strengthened their grip at the top with a comfortable 2–0 win away at Burnley, extending their lead in the standings. Fulham cruised past Wolves 3–0, a result that led to the sacking of manager Vítor Pereira as Wolves’ struggles deepened.
At the City Ground, Nottingham Forest and Manchester United played out an entertaining 2–2 draw, while Brighton produced one of their best performances of the season, beating Leeds 3–0 on the south coast. Crystal Palace also impressed, seeing off Brentford 2–0.
In the capital, Chelsea edged Tottenham 1–0, a result that left Spurs fans frustrated but marked an important win for Chelsea after recent inconsistency.
Liverpool bounced back to form with a 2–0 victory over Aston Villa, and Manchester City returned to winning ways, dispatching Bournemouth 3–1 at the Etihad.
The shock of the weekend came at the London Stadium, where West Ham stunned Newcastle 3–1, continuing the Magpies’ poor away record and giving Nuno Espírito Santo a vital and morale-boosting win. Finally, on Monday night, Sunderland earned a valuable home draw against Everton, maintaining their surprise top-four position.
This Weekend
Another packed weekend of Premier League action awaits, headlined by a heavyweight clash at the Etihad and a host of pivotal fixtures at both ends of the table.
Tottenham v Manchester United kicks things off on Saturday in what promises to be a crucial test for both sides. United’s form has improved in recent weeks, but Tottenham will be desperate to deliver a strong home performance for their supporters after a frustrating run. It’s a true 50–50 contest — one that could define the direction of both teams’ seasons.
At Goodison Park, Everton host Fulham, and our model favours the home side, who look well-organised and efficient under Dyche. West Ham, buoyed by last weekend’s impressive 3–1 win over Newcastle, take on Burnley and will look to build momentum in front of their home crowd.
Sunderland welcome Arsenal, the league leaders and clear title favourites. The model gives Arsenal a 65% chance of victory, and they’re expected to maintain their composure against a spirited Sunderland side enjoying a remarkable season so far.
Elsewhere, Chelsea should enjoy a comfortable afternoon at Stamford Bridge against a struggling Wolves outfit, while Aston Villa, strong at home this year, are backed to overcome Bournemouth, one of the season’s surprise packages.
Crystal Palace v Everton looks like one of the tighter matchups of the round — both teams in form, both difficult to break down — but our numbers lean slightly toward Palace to edge it at Selhurst Park. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest v Leeds shapes up as a six-pointer near the bottom, with Forest holding a 43% chance to Leeds’ 27%, suggesting a narrow home win.
Newcastle travel to Brentford, and given Newcastle’s inconsistency on the road, that one really could go either way.
Then comes Sunday’s main event: Manchester City v Liverpool at 4:30pm. City have a 51% chance of victory according to our model, making them marginal favourites, but the stakes couldn’t be higher. Arsenal are likely to have already won by then, meaning City and Liverpool may be fighting to avoid losing further ground in the title race. Expect intensity, fine margins, and possibly the weekend’s defining result.
Premier League – Title and Relegation Outlook
The title race is already starting to take a clear shape — and according to our model, it’s rapidly turning into a one-horse race. Arsenal now have a commanding 77% chance of winning the Premier League, with Manchester City trailing on 13% and Liverpool on 10%. Everyone else is essentially out of contention.
There’s been plenty of debate in recent weeks over whether it’s “Arsenal’s to lose,” but the data leaves no room for doubt — it absolutely is. Even with only a quarter of the season gone, the Gunners have built enough of a cushion and shown such consistency that losing the title from here would be a major shock.
At the other end of the table, things look equally stark. Wolves are in serious trouble, with a 98% chance of relegation following their disastrous run and managerial change. West Ham and Nottingham Forest currently join them in the bottom three, though Fulham are not out of danger either — their recent slide has dragged them into the relegation conversation.
Meanwhile, Sunderland’s impressive early form has them punching well above expectations, but our projections still place them mid-table by season’s end. As for Newcastle, their defeat at West Ham was costly — the model now has them finishing 10th, putting a return to the Champions League in serious doubt unless their away form improves dramatically.
It’s early days, but the picture is becoming clearer: Arsenal in control at the top, Wolves in free fall at the bottom, and a tightening battle everywhere in between.
Betting Value
As always, our model has trawled through the data to uncover where the bookmakers have mispriced the markets — and this weekend there are several strong value opportunities across the leagues.
In the Championship, we’ve identified a standout in Sheffield Wednesday away at Southampton. While Wednesday are clear underdogs, our model gives them a 24% chance of victory compared to the bookmakers’ 14%, creating a healthy margin for value.
- Value threshold: 4.87
- Odds available: 7.86
Moving down to League Two, Harrogate Town at home to Oldham also catch the eye. Our model rates Harrogate’s chances at 40%, whereas the market has them at 31%, offering another profitable edge.
- Value threshold: 2.85
- Odds available: 3.45
And if you fancy something a little more exotic, in Spain’s Segunda División, Cádiz at home to Valladolid present another solid opportunity. Our model gives Cádiz a 46% chance of success versus the bookmakers’ 37%, which again highlights strong value.
- Value threshold: 2.30
- Odds available: 2.81
So whether you’re looking at the English leagues or further afield in Europe, this weekend’s markets once again offer plenty of value — if you know where to look.
New Feature for Premium Members
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
For all the betting analysis of every game in the Football Leagues and abroad, and plenty of picks identified to grow your betting pot, sign up for a free trial. https://sports4cast.com/4casts/football4cast/
