It’s official: Arsenal are now season favourites, with a 47% chance of league success
Welcome to the Weekend Preview 17 October 2025. The international break is over and the Premier League returns with a full slate — and a new look at the title race. Arsenal have overtaken Liverpool as our model’s top-rated side for the first time this season, while Manchester City try to reassert themselves in a crucial home clash with Everton. Liverpool face off against old rivals Manchester United in what should be a fairly straightforward home victory. Across Europe, Bayern host Dortmund in Der Klassiker, and the Championship promotion battle continues to tighten.
Football4Cast Weekend Preview 17 October 2025
Saturday’s action opens at the City Ground, where Chelsea are slight favourites (44% v 28%) over Nottingham Forest. Crystal Palace (46%) are tipped to edge Bournemouth at Selhurst Park, while Manchester City (66%) look strong at home to Everton.
Elsewhere, Burnley vs Leeds and Brighton vs Newcastle are near 50-50 contests — the type of games that can swing early-season momentum. Sunderland, meanwhile, have a genuine chance at home to Wolves (44%), with Wolves struggling and Sunderland impressing.
Saturday evening brings Fulham vs Arsenal, with the Gunners firm favourites (59%), while Sunday’s double-header sees Aston Villa (42%) given the edge at Tottenham, and Liverpool (70%) backed strongly at home to Manchester United. Monday’s match between West Ham and Brentford rounds out the weekend, another close call in a season full of fine margins.
Premier League Betting Value
As usual, most Premier League markets are well-priced, with limited major discrepancies between model and odds. However, two fixtures stand out:
- Burnley (39%) vs Leeds United (32%) – Burnley are slightly underpriced at home, offering value at odds around 3.5.
- Aston Villa (42%) away at Tottenham (30%) – Villa’s price of 3.55 holds solid value against our model’s forecast, with Spurs overrated in the market.
Premier League Season Outlook
It’s official: Arsenal are now season favourites, with a 47% chance of league success. Liverpool are now in second place with a 37% chance and Manchester City at 16%. Chelsea are the most improved team, while Newcastle’s European push remains on track.
At the other end, Wolves, West Ham, and Burnley face the highest relegation probabilities, while Sunderland are outperforming pre-season expectations.
European Focus – Bayern Munich vs Dortmund
The Der Klassiker headlines the Bundesliga weekend. Bayern Munich (60%) are firm favourites to beat Dortmund (18%) at the Allianz Arena, maintaining their title charge — projected to win the league in 90% of simulations. Leverkusen and Leipzig remain the closest chasers, while Heidenheim and Gladbach sit in relegation trouble. Despite Bayern being heavy favourites, there is value with Dortmund. Bookies have them under-priced to get a surprise result, but obviously approach with caution.
As always, there are hundreds of markets worldwide where the algorithm spots hidden value. This weekend, opportunities lie not only in the Premier League but across Europe and beyond. Subscribers get access to the full slate of recommendations and staking guidance.
New Feature for Premium Members
For Premium members, we now have a new feature: Bet Grading
Our upgraded Bet Grading system now rates each recommended bet for clarity and confidence:
- Grade A: Strongest edges, highest confidence
- Grade B: Moderate value and stable confidence
- Grade C: Smaller or high-variance plays
It’s designed to help you prioritise opportunities, manage risk, and track edge consistency across the season.
Here are the a couple of A picks for this weekend:
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