The title race has already shifted. Manchester City’s surprise home defeat to Tottenham saw their title chances fall from 31% to just 16%
The Premier League Update
Let’s start the Premier League Update with a quick look at how the table is shaping up heading into Matchweek 3. After only a couple of games, it may still be early for definitive conclusions, but the title race has already shifted. Tottenham’s surprise win at Manchester City cut City’s title chances from 31% to just 16%. Liverpool now lead with a 52% chance, and Arsenal sit close behind at 30%.
How does that stack up against the bookies? Liverpool look heavily underpriced by around 17%, while Arsenal and Chelsea come out overpriced. Still, the eye test suggests caution: Liverpool may have two wins, but they haven’t impressed. Sunday’s 3:30pm clash at Anfield will give both Liverpool and Arsenal an early test of their title credentials. Arsenal will miss Odegaard and Saka — a major blow — though new signings Eze and Madueke may step in to cover.
At the bottom, Burnley and Leeds look safer than expected, with relegation chances down to 21% and 15%. West Ham (66%), Sunderland (68%) and Wolves (62%) remain the three clear favourites for the drop. West Ham look dreadful, and with the mood turning toxic, our model expects a grim campaign. An away trip to Nottingham Forest is unlikely to lift the gloom in East London.
This Weekend’s Fixtures
The Premier League weekend begins with Chelsea at home to Fulham, where our model gives Chelsea a 59% edge. Manchester United should beat Burnley, though the visitors’ 29% chance leaves room for an upset. Brentford look the stronger side away at Sunderland, while Tottenham v Bournemouth shapes up far closer than bookmakers suggest. Wolves v Everton is another tight contest, with Everton slightly ahead at 40%. Leeds v Newcastle also looks balanced, with Newcastle favoured at 44%. Nottingham Forest are tipped at 58% to extend West Ham’s poor run, while Manchester City sit at 55% away at Brighton.
The standout fixture is Liverpool v Arsenal at Anfield. Our model rates Liverpool 50%, Arsenal 27%, and the draw 23%. Aston Villa close the round with a 53% chance at home to Crystal Palace.
Premier League Bet of the Weekend
There are slim picking in the Premier League this weekend, with only two viable options as we see both Burnley and Bournemouth underpriced. We would be wary of betting against Thomas Frank’s Tottenham at the moment, but those Burnley odds look rather attractive.
Value away from the top flight
Further afield, there are plenty of opportunities this weekend.
In League One, our bet of the weekend is Reading at home against Port Vale. Odds of above 2.2 are what you should be on the lookout for.
And League 2 provides probably the bet of the weekend: Gillingham away at Oldham. Our model gives them a 50% chance versus the market’s 33%, with odds of 3.25 available against a fair line of 2.53.
Crawley are another to watch away at Chesterfield, priced at 5.8 compared with our 4.98. Walsall also stand out, rated 37% against the market’s 25%, with odds of 4.5 available. Wimbledon (fair line 4.88), Blackpool (3.26) and Reading (2.22, odds of 2.66) all carry smaller but positive value.
Continental and Global Picks
One of the best value bets this weekend in world football is in Spain. Real Oviedo at home to Real Sociedad are given a 42% chance compared with the market’s 29%, so look out for anything over 3.2.
Diving amongst the weeds of world football (no offence), Finland offers some of the weekend’s clearest value. Inter Turku are overpriced at 74% favourites, with our model at just 40%. VPS, meanwhile, are rated 30% compared with the market’s 16%, with 6.75 on offer. In the same league, the draw between Ilves and Maria Häm is 24% in our model against 14% in the market, with Betfair pricing it at 8.2.
And finally, all the way over In Mexico, Atlético de San Luis are 41% at home to Toluca compared with the market’s 30%. Odds of 3.9 are available which represents exceptional value.
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