2018 Summer Tests: New Zealand v France

The All Blacks welcome France to New Zealand for the first time since 2013. Historically, France have often been a banana skin for the mighty Kiwis, but when was the last time that happened? And what are the chances of another famous French win this time round? Well, look no further, we have all the answers, and more, below. Read on, friend.

Computer Prediction

Our computer model gives New Zealand a strong advantage, predicting a comfortable 19 point victory for the All Blacks. [NB. We haven’t predicted all three matches as each prediction would be the same. These will therefore be updated as the tour progresses.]

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The model works by looking at previous scoring patters in matches, both head to heads and generally, to work out an expected score for each team based on location and current ranking. For more information on how these calculations are made, see here, and for further predictions see here.

If you’d like to bet based on these predictions, please see here for our specific tips on relative to the bookies.

France

France finished fourth in this years Six Nations, but were within two points of second, had they beaten Wales in the final game (the match finished 14-13 to the Welsh). They also were narrowly close to beating Ireland, with just a last minute Jonny Sexton drop goal saving the Irish.

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France in 2017 and 2018

France therefore, are not as bad a side as everyone makes them out to be, and despite a run of bad results last year (eight matches without a win) are well capable of turning over the accepted norms.

However, against New Zealand, they will really be up against it. France’s record in New Zealand is better than most, but still extremely favourable to the men in black. With just 3 wins in New Zealand in their history, France will need something special to win.

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New Zealand

However, New Zealand haven’t been on top form recently either. in fact, by their standards, 2017 was positively average. Two defeats and a draw blighting their recent records (only 7 defeats between 2010 and 2016) with one of those defeats coming at home against the British and Irish Lions.

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New Zealand in 2017 and 2018

New Zealand home defeats are rare indeed. In fact, in what might just be the most incredible rugby statistic (and we’d welcome contenders), the All Blacks have played 107 home tests this millennium … and lost just 7 times. SEVEN times in nearly 20 years. Incredible stuff.

However, Lions aside, France were the last northern hemisphere team to defeat them on home soil, back in 2009 winning by five points. Can history be repeated?

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History

It would appear unlikely. Since then New Zealand and France have taken vastly different trajectories. New Zealand have won every Rugby Championship, two World Cups and cemented themselves atop of the World Rankings. France have spiralled rather out of control, only managing to win one Six Nations (2010) and currently languish down in 8th in the rankings. Combined with the formidable New Zealand home advantage, it is hard to see a French victory occurring.

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Rankings over the past 40 years

Conclusion

New Zealand 3 – 0. Fairly comfortable. Famous last words…

coralnewcust

 

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