2018 Summer Tests: Eagles Special

The USA Eagles welcome Russia and Scotland from across the pond, and then visit Canada as part of their Summer Tests series. For the US, this will be chance to build on their excellent Americas Rugby Championship win – which included a Grand Slam – and surely will be targetting a weakened Scottish touring side as their first Tier 1 scalp since they beat France (if our records are correct…) in the 1924 Olympics.

Computer Prediction

Our computer model currently has the US finishing with two wins and one loss.

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The model works by looking at previous scoring patters in matches, both head to heads and generally, to work out an expected score for each team based on location and current ranking. For more information on how these calculations are made, see here, and for further predictions see here.

If you’d like to bet based on these predictions, please see here for our specific tips on using our predictions for betting.

USA

The US are currently on a five match winning streak, their best ever, which has seen them climb to 15th in the World Rankings, their highest being 14th back in the 2007 World Cup.

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USA in 2017 and 2018

They also have a strong record at home currently, with only two losses outside of visiting Tier 1 sides, since the beginning of 2014. But how much further can the US extend this hot streak?

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USA at home since 2014

Russia

For the visiting Russians, this could be a step too far. They have never beaten the Americans, the closest they came being two games in 2011 when they lost by just seven points.

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The recent rankings reflect this, but perhaps not to the extent that might be expected. The Russians are not far behind the Americans, currently sitting in 19th position, just six points behind. However, with US home advantage, and strong head to head favourability, we don’t see the Russians causing an upset this time round.

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Scotland

The last meeting between Scotland and the United States at the 2015 World Cup ended 39-16 in favor of Scotland. However, with the US losing narrowly 17-21 to Georgia in June 2017 and a 20-24 defeat to Italy in June 2016 means Scotland should be cautious of the Eagles. The hot and humid conditions of Houston should favour the home team.

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Additionally, the launch of Major League Rugby this year means many of the Eagles players will be regularly performing at a significantly higher standard than in previous seasons and are likely to carry additional match sharpness into the fixture.

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The US also recorded their first ever Grand Slam of the Americas Rugby Championship earlier in the year, cruising comfortably to victory in all of their matches. They will be keen to build on these results, and a win over a weaker, touring Scotland would be a big result for them.

However, the rankings show the gulf that is currently between the two sides – Scotland’s recent improvements taking them to their biggest ever margin over the US. For the United States a win seems unlikely however, if Scotland are restricted to a victory by less than 7 points this would represent a good outcome for Eagles fans.

Canada

The US and Canada have played 59 times in the past, with Canada leading the head to head comfortably 39 to 19, with two draws. However, the US are pulling it back rapidly, winning seven out of the last eight matches between the two, and drawing the eighth.

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US and Canada since 2010

Canada have lost 13 out of their last 18 matches, with their only wins coming against Chile, Spain and Brazil. Unfortunately for them, because of this, their ranking has suffered and they currently sit down in 21st place.  The US have been more consistent and now have the advantage over their longtime rivals. Our predictor gives the US the advantage because of this, giving the US an eight point advantage come full time.

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Conclusion

The US are likely to extend their unbeaten record run to six games with victory over Russia, but Scotland’s strength, despite missing several key players, should prove too much for the US. However, they should rebound with a good away win over Canada.

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coralnewcust

 

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