England v Argentina – in depth

England take on Argentina in the opening weekend of the Autumn Internationals, but what’s the history between the two teams? And who is likely to win?

image-10
England v Argentina – head to head

Of the 22 times they have met in the past England have won 17, and are currently on an 8 match winning streak against the Puma’s stretching back to 2009. Our model suggests that the Argentinians are unlikely to break this winning run for England, with the latest predictions giving England a healthy 27 point win at Twickenham, the match predicted to finish 41-14.

image-1
Previous matches between the two

From their first match (a 19 all draw in Buenos Aires back in 1981) Argentina have only managed to record 4 victories against the men in white, with only 1 of those occurring at Twickenham, a 25-18 win to the Pumas back in 2006. However, our model suggested that England should even have won that game comfortably, 32-19, so is there any hope for the South Americans?

image
Rankings at previous matches throughout history

Unfortunately for the Argentines, the data would appear to suggest not. Their fortunes have differed significantly since those days. Of the 10 games they have played against each other since, England have won 9 with the largest victory being a 51-26 demolition in Buenos Aires back in 2013.

Since their early World Cup exit back in 2015, England have enjoyed a 22 game streak with only 1 loss under new coach Eddie Jones. Argentina on the other hand enjoyed a successful World Cup, losing to Australia in the semi finals and reaching a high of 4th in the word rankings. Since then however, they have only managed to record wins in 8 of their 25 games, with only 3 of those wins against Tier 1 opposition (Italy, France and South Africa – all at home). They have also lost twice to England this year, at home, during England’s summer tour in Argentina in June.

image-5
England’s successful 2016/17
image-6
Argentina have had mixed results since World Cup 2015

England have lost only once since their World Cup defeat to Australia in 2015 which, combined with their strong current streak against the Argentines and home advantage lead us to be very confident about an English victory on Saturday. The scoreline may not be as one sided as the 41-14 hammering our model suggests, but it should be a comfortable win for the English in their opening fixture.

1 Comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s